Macro Dragon: WK # 43 - Tesla, Netflix, Intel, Daimler, Lockheed, IBM, RBA Mins, Turkey & Russia, US presidential debate...

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: WK # 43 - Tesla, Netflix, Intel, Daimler, Lockheed, IBM, RBA Mins, Turkey & Russia, US presidential debate...

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 43

  • Hope everyone had a diversified, rewarding, restful & growth filled wk

  • What kind of week are you trying to have up ahead?

  • Dragon Airtime: Always phenomenal hanging out with the Bloomie Dream team, personally think that Haslinda Amin & crew are the best in the financial media space. U.S. Election Is Biggest Political Risk Seen In Several Decades, Saxo Markets Says

  • Focus: Again, all about US politics countdown, the delta on a stimulus bill, Brexit end-game with the “hard” 31 Dec 2020 deadline & of course the resurgence C19 cases as we start to knock on winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Worth noting the spikes in cases, is no where near correlated to the deaths seen earlier in the year.  

  • NZ elections was as expected biggest win by the incumbents camp, who have been seen as magnanimous in their response & tackling of C19 – NZ is still closed off to the rest of the world.

  • Here in SG, we are starting to see a travel bubble starting with HK, whereby their will be slightly less onerous restrictions on travel between the two destinations. Again this is positive, as this will be the direction of the world going back to opening up – still a while to go, likely Jan 2020 does not get back fully until 2023. And worth noting, just as we have seen repeated lock-downs, it may not be a straight line towards the globe re-opening.

  • US Presidential Debate: So looks like we finally have an agreed on a final debate for this Thu at 21:00 ET (Fri 09:00 SGT). With just a little over two wks until the Nov 3 election, one has to wonder whether this is in anyway material.

  • Obviously, Trump would be the underdog here (from an upside surprise perspective) & a what would surprise the market is a more moderate exchange between the two. Yet as someone sharply & rightly quipped, all we got from the 1st debate was complaints & shock  from everyone – as if they had been living under a rock for the last 4yrs. Then when we finally got a real debate between Harris & Pence - all people wanted to talk about was the fly that landed on Pence’s head. Which likely lends some truth to the adage, that society gets the leadership it deserves, not the leadership it needs.

  • Markets: Again stimulus dependent. With that said last wk MtM was interesting as US EQ, Bonds & the Dollar closed up for the wk, alongside energy (post 2wks back of c. +10%).

  • Copper continues to hold up well, despite a pullback in some of the other metals. Whether this is an underlying read on upcoming global growth (Dragon loves copper in Medium to Long-Term), near-term supply/demand dynamics or just an extension that will reverse tactically before we have a strategic fiscal driven move higher? Remains to be seen… Worth noting that again XLE 30.19, -2% underperformed despite energy being up for 2wks.

  • Earnings: We had the financials, TSM & Honeywell kick off last wk. This wk some the spotlight is likely to fall on earnings from some of the fangs, telecoms & consumer names.

  • Mon: IBM

  • Tue: China Mobile (941), Philip Morris (PM), Netflix (NFLX), Texas Instruments (TXN), P&G (PG), Lockheed (LMT)

  • Wed: Tesla (TSLA), Iberdrola (IBE), Verizon (VZ), Abbot (ABT), Thermo (TMO)

  • Thu: Danaher (DHR), Union Pacific (UNP), Intel (INTC), Coke (KO), AT&T (T), Hermes (RMS)

  • Fri: Daimler (DAI), Amex (AXP), Illinois Tool Works (ITW)

  • Economics: China 3Q GDP + Monthly Growth Numbers, US Housing Data & Fed’s Beige Book, Friday Flash PMIs

  • Central Banks: Turkey 11.75%e 10.25%p, Russia 4.25%e/p

    ECB’s Lagarde set to speak on Mon 19 Oct 20:30 SGT

    BoC Quarterly Business Outlook Mon 19 Oct 22:30

    RBA Mins Tue 20 Oct 08:30 SGT

    BOE’s Bailey set to speak on Thu 22 Oct 17:25 SGT

    Norges’ Olsen on Thu 22 Oct 23:00 SGT

    Fed’s Beige Book Thu 22 Oct 02:00 SGT

  • Fed Speak: Powell on IMF panel (Mon 20:00 SGT), Williams, Clarida (Mon 23:45 SGT, speech on econ. outlook), Kashkari, Bostic, Harker, Quarles, Evans, Mester, Kaplan

  • Holidays: No major holidays on the Macro Calendar, yet try telling that to Congress!   

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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

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