(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon WK #4: Zero Probability of No Violence in the US Given Inauguration Week
Top of Mind…
Some SaxoStrats Specials from KVP’s peers that were likely missed during X-mas Season
Rest of the Week & Other Top of Mind Thoughts
- US: Its long wkd given MLK Mon, yet its all about the Wed swearing in of the new POTUS – the King & Queen Maker, Joe Biden. Naturally Biden’s speech will be highly anticipated, how much it moves markets, let alone sway’s tribal anchored views, is a whole different thing.
- There will be TIC long-term purchases, Phily Fed, housing data & flash PMIs.
- EU: ZEW figures from the block & Germany, as well as final CPI. We do have ECB on Thu, with Flash PMIs Friday.
- CH: Beat on YoY GDP 6.5%a 6.2%e. Monthly growth data mixed, a beat on IP 7.3%a 6.9%, miss on FAI 2.9%a 3.3%e & Retail Sales 4.6%a 5.5%e
- UK: BoE Bailey speaking on Mon & Fri (2130 SGT & 0100 SGT), CPI, house prices, retail sales & flash PMIs.
- CA: CPI, Housing Starts, BoC on Wed, ADP & Retails Sales.
- AU: MI Inflation expectations, Jobs data due on Thu & Flash PMIs Friday.
- NZ: Milk Auction, Visitor Arrivals & 4Q CPI 1.1%e 1.4%p due on Fri (0545 SGT)
- CBs: Quite a number we have decisions out of Malaysia, Canada, Brazil (Chance they are more hawkish than is expected despite economists seeing 2.00%e/p), Norway (already have less dovish / more hawkish skew relative to other CBs), Turkey (big girl hikes in 4Q20, expected to stay on hold at 17%... yes seventeen percent), Euro-Zone, South Africa, Indonesia & Japan.
- Hols: US out on Mon on MLK day.
Dragon’s Heavy Rotation…
More of these on the way – editing ran into year-end, house moves & the like. What can we say, can’t rush greatness. Yet two more Dragon Interview coming up before the month is over – they are stuck with my editor… patience… KVP cannot do it all… apparently…
In case you missed it previously – been super well received, thx for feedback, sharing & support on this project folks - the first in a string of exclusive Dragon Interviews series with exceptional professionals with skin-in-the-game, across different strategies, asset-classes & backgrounds.
We kicked off with Singapore Based, AVM Global Opportunity, run by the talented & always exceptional Ashvin Murthy. Who in KVP’s view is world class in his approach, process & even more importantly trade construction & money management. Point being, if the process is pristine & consistent, the returns will take care of themselves overtime.
The timing of the interview is uncanny as it was at the cusp of the last US presidential elections that AVM was launched. It’s worth noting since the interview, the fund has also been nominated for the Singapore’s Best Hedge Fund of 2020, given its consecutive five straight positive months at the start of this volatile year.
Please click here for interview link.
You can follow & learn more about AVM here.
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea.
This is the way