Market Quick Take - Wall Street rebounds and Brent slides below USD 92 - 10 November 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Middle East peace hopes coincided with a return of risk appetite
• Equities: Global equities rebounded sharply, with US and European markets recovering from last week's selloff, while Asian technology stocks led gains.
• Volatility: Implied volatility fell sharply and the cash curve returned to contango ahead of CPI
• Digital Assets: Crypto lagged the equity rebound while ETF outflows continued and bitcoin miners rose
• Commodities: Oil extends post-midterm slump while gold consolidates ahead of US inflation data
• Fixed Income: US Yields rebound on strong comeback in risk sentiment
• Currencies: UD weaker, but weak currency reactivity to profound risk sentiment comeback.

Macro

• Trump said further strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” if a “very strong agreement” is reached, sending oil prices sharply lower and lifting global risk sentiment, even as new incidents in the Strait of Hormuz underscore ongoing regional instability.
• Nvidia said Sunday it is investigating Jensen Huang after he admitted to an intimate relationship with an executive at a Singaporean firm suspected of smuggling Nvidia chips into China.
• China extended its suspension of the additional 24% tariff on select US imports for two more months from 10 November, maintaining a 10% levy and formalising the trade truce from the Washington summit.
• Australia’s consumer sentiment index fell 2.7% m/m to 78.2 in November, a third straight decline and lowest since November 2022, amid cost-of-living pressures and higher borrowing costs. Economic outlook and buying conditions weakened, while unemployment expectations rose; Westpac’s Matthew Hassan still does not expect an RBA rate hike in February.
• UK like-for-like retail sales rose 1.1% y/y in October, the fastest since June but just below forecasts, with total sales up 1.5%. Food sales grew 3.2% while non-food was flat. Barclays card spending rose 2.3% y/y, led by fuel and entertainment, but consumer confidence weakened amid higher costs and budget uncertainty.
• Japan’s household spending fell 6.8% y/y in September, the tenth straight drop and steepest since September 2020, as inflation and higher borrowing costs hit demand. Seasonally adjusted spending declined 2.8% m/m.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0700 – Norway Oct. CPI
• 0830 – Sweden Riksbank Meeting Minutes
• 0830 – UK Bank of England’s Breeden to speak
• 0900 – US Fed Chair Waller to give keynote speech in UK
• 1330 – US Oct. CPI (Due to government shutdown in 2025, only the Index and Month-on-month data will be reported)
• 1700 – EIAs Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO)
• 1800 – US Treasury to auction 10-year notes
• 1830 – UK Bank of England’s Chief Economist Pill to speak
• 2030 – US Fed’s Bowman to speak
• G7 Foreign ministers meet in Paris (through Tuesday)

Earnings events

• Tuesday: Softbank Group, Infineon
• Wednesday: Siemens Energy, E.ON, RWE
• Thursday: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Enel, Brookfield, Merck, Nu Holdings

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 surged 2.4% to 7,549.94, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.4% to 27,907.63, and the Dow gained 2.2%, marking Wall Street's strongest session since April as falling oil prices helped restore confidence after last week's sharp selloff. The recovery was broad-based, with Meta rising 5.1%, Microsoft gaining 2.8% and Apple adding 2.4% as investors returned to large technology companies, while Nvidia bucked the trend, falling 4.3% amid an internal investigation into CEO Jensen Huang's reported relationship with a woman allegedly linked to Chinese intelligence. Attention now turns to US inflation data and whether the recovery can extend beyond a short-term rebound.
• Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.3% to 656.52, Germany's DAX gained 1.7% and the FTSE 100 advanced 1%, as European equities rebounded on stronger banking and technology shares. Banco BPM surged 10.7% after Crédit Agricole proposed merging its Italian operations with the lender, while UniCredit gained 6.3% following better-than-expected earnings and higher profit guidance. ASML rose 4.7% and Infineon added 6.3% as investors returned to semiconductor stocks, while defence shares climbed 4.2% and luxury companies lagged amid persistent concerns over Chinese demand. The broad recovery offered some relief, although investors remained focused on earnings, valuations and the outlook for European interest rates.
• Asia: South Korea's KOSPI rallied around 4%, Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 2.9% to reclaim the 60,000 level, and Taiwan's Taiex advanced nearly 3%, as Asian markets followed Wall Street's recovery and falling oil prices eased inflation concerns. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led South Korea's rebound, gaining around 5% and 6.7% respectively in late-morning trading, while the strength triggered a temporary suspension of automated buy orders after KOSPI 200 futures surged more than 5%. SoftBank helped drive Japan's technology rally, while gains in Hong Kong and mainland China were more modest as investors awaited US inflation data and further evidence that strong artificial intelligence spending could translate into sustainable profits.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 19.92 | VIX FUTURES: 20.050 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.34) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Monday's rebound took the panic premium out of the front of the curve, and traders now price inflation data as an ordinary event, not a second shock. The VIX fell 22% to 19.92, its lowest close since the post-election rally. One-day vol dropped back below it, leaving about 0.79% priced for CPI day.
• The cash curve has returned to contango, and the futures inversion has largely unwound. November still sits above December, a shrinking hump for the 9 December Fed decision. SKEW eased while dispersion barely moved, which keeps single-stock risk in chips and Nvidia ahead of index risk. MOVE fell below 86, so rates vol confirmed the calmer tone.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~74,458 -1.08% | ETHEREUM ~2,112 -0.99% | IBIT 42.32 -1.31% | ETHA 48.06 -4.51% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Crypto sat out Monday's equity rebound because the selling came from leverage and funds, not from broad risk sentiment. More than USD 1bn of long positions were liquidated as bitcoin fell to its lowest since August, and it now trades below Strategy's average purchase cost. Bitcoin funds lost about USD 201m and ether funds about USD 185m, extending the outflow run.
• Miners went the other way, CleanSpark up 12.18%, because investors price them on data-centre leases and power access more than on the coin. Strategy fell even as it kept buying bitcoin, spending more than twice as much buying back its STRC preferred. Bitmine is close to its 5% ether cap, which removes a steady weekly buyer.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent has now fallen around 22% from its late-October peak above USD 117, hovering near USD 92 as hopes for an end to the eight-month-old Middle East conflict have strengthened following the US midterm elections. President Trump added to the optimism by suggesting further strikes on Iran would not be necessary. While crude oil flows have almost returned to pre-war levels, LNG and refined product supplies remain constrained, keeping prices elevated, particularly for diesel. A peace deal could help ease these pressures, but for now, European diesel still trades around USD 175 per barrel, while the Dutch TTF gas benchmark has retreated to around EUR 81/MWh from its pre-midterms peak above EUR 104. Focus today: The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and any fresh signals from Washington and Tehran on the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough.
• Metals: Gold trades lower after once again struggling to break resistance near USD 4,170 ahead of today's US CPI release, which carries the risk of reinforcing expectations of a December Fed rate hike. The post-midterm rebound, supported by slumping oil prices and short covering among leveraged funds, has helped stabilise the market. Traders are now weighing whether the next move will be further consolidation above USD 4,000 or renewed gains that could strengthen confidence that a durable low is in place. In my view, the latter would require a sustained break above USD 4,200.
• European power prices surge amid cold weather and weak renewable output: A combination of colder weather, elevated natural gas prices and Dunkelflaute - low wind speeds and limited sunshine - has driven day-ahead electricity prices towards sharply higher. In Germany and France, prices have surged towards EUR 350/MWh, levels last seen during the 2022–23 energy crisis. The spike highlights Europe's growing dependence on weather-driven renewable generation and costly gas-fired backup capacity when wind and solar output falter, adding further pressure to already tight gas supplies.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields sold off on the strong comeback in risky assets Monday, with front end yields continuing their relative high volatility ahead of a keynote speech from Fed Chair Warsh today and US October CPI data to be released later today (only the month-on-month and overall index will be published as last year’s October data was not calculated due to the government shutdown. The market is pricing 84% odds of a December Fed rate hike. The benchmark 2-year yield rose about five basis points to trade near 4.56%, while the benchmark 10-year yield only rose a little over two basis points Monday, trading near 4.88% in early Tuesday hours.
• The US Treasury will auction 10-year notes later today and the bond market is closed tomorrow. Yesterday’s auction of 3-year notes saw soft demand in the bid-to-cover ratio, but a record percentage of the issue was taken down by direct bidders.
• US high yield corporate bonds rallied Monday on the strong comeback in risk sentiment. The Bloomberg index we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US treasuries tightened ten basis points to close the day at 326 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar reversed the Friday sell-off on Monday as oil prices continued their steep retreat and risk sentiment staged an enormous comeback. EURUSD squeezed back above 1.1225, completely reversing the Friday sell-off, while AUDUSD staged a similar recover after very briefly dipping to its lowest level since late March of this year – trading 0.6925 after the 0.6854 low Friday. As noted in the Fixed Income commentary above, Fed Chair Warsh speaks today and we will see an unusual US October CPI release today. USDJPY remains stuck in the range near 158.00, but shied away from 158.50 area resistance.
• New Zealand’s dollar continued to strengthen after the weekend’s NZD election saw the right-center National Party with a likely path to forming a coalition with other right-leaning parties. AUDNZD dropped to a new local low below 1.2300 and tested the lows of the range since early September as Australia’s Business Sentiment survey came in weaker than expected.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis