Market Quick Take – 10 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. eked gains as shutdown talks inched forward, Europe slipped on AI-valuation worries, Asia opened the week softer
• Volatility: VIX steady near 19, investors hedge ahead of CPI, SPX options imply ±1.7% move
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin ~$106 k; IBIT and ETHA see inflows; alt-coins firm with risk sentiment
• Currencies: JPY weakens on jump in yields. USD mixed. AUD surges overnight.
• Commodities: Gold and silver in buoyant mood as rally resume
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields jump on hopes for end to US government shutdown. Ten-year JGB yield eyes highest close since 2008.
• Macro events: Ongoing talks to reopen US government

Macro headlines

• The U.S. government shutdown nears its end as moderate Senate Democrats support a deal to reopen the government, The bill would provide full-year funding for some departments, fund other agencies through Jan. 30, and provide pay for furloughed government workers, but its passage in the House is not guaranteed due to opposition from Democratic leaders who had demanded an extension of expiring Obamacare subsidies.
• China has lifted its ban on exporting "dual-use items" such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the US, effective until November 27, 2026. The suspension also includes checks on graphite exports. Previously announced in December 2024, this follows the suspension on additional export controls for rare earth materials and lithium battery components.
• China's consumer prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, rebounding from September's 0.3% drop, driven by Golden Week spending that boosted travel, food and transport demand. Core inflation reached a 20-month high at 1.2%. Monthly consumer prices also rose 0.2%, the highest in three months.
• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to near a record low at 50.3 in November, due to concerns over the prolonged US government shutdown. The Current Economic Conditions Index reached a record low of 52.3, and the Consumer Expectations Index dropped to 49.0. Inflation expectations were mixed: short-term increased to 4.7%, and long-term decreased to 3.6%.
• US median one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.2% in October 2025 from 3.4%, while three- and five-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Home price growth held at 3.0% for the fifth month. Commodity expectations fell for gas (-0.7 points to 3.5%) and food (-0.1 point to 5.7%). College costs rose by 8.2% (+1.2 pp), medical care by 9.4% (+0.1 pp), and rent by 7.2% (+0.2 pp).
• Canada's unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October 2025 from 7.1%, against expectations. Employment increased by 66,600 jobs to 21,015,300, while unemployed persons decreased by 49,200 to 1,557,300. Core-aged men's unemployment fell to 6%, and youth unemployment dropped to 14.1%. Long-term unemployment stayed at 21.3%, similar to last year.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed

0700 – Norway October PPI
0930 – Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence
COP30 in Brazil (through 21 November)

Earnings events

• Today: Sony, Coreweave
• Tuesday: Softbank
• Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Hon Hai Precision, Infineon
• Thursday: Siemens, Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Deutsche Telekom, Brookfield, Nu Holdings
• Friday: Compagnie Financiere Richemont

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, the Dow added 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% on Friday as hopes for a stopgap budget steadied sentiment while AI leaders lagged. Energy and defensives led with Exxon Mobil +2.4% and Coca-Cola +2.2%; telecoms outperformed with T-Mobile +3.0% on steady subscriber momentum. Tesla fell 3.7% after shareholders approved Elon Musk’s pay package, as rich AI valuations kept pressure on tech. Into today, Nvidia’s CEO flagged very strong Blackwell demand and growing TSMC wafer needs, a reminder that AI capex remains a swing factor.
• Europe: The STOXX 50 fell 0.8% and the STOXX 600 lost 0.6% on Friday as tech-valuation worries weighed. UK movers drove dispersion: Rightmove sank 12.5% after guiding to slower profit growth amid higher AI spend, while ITV jumped more than 15% on talks to sell its media arm to Sky. IAG dropped almost 12% on softer transatlantic trends, while autos firmed after incremental supply headlines around China chip exports. Weekly declines left Europe on the back foot into Monday.
• Asia: Nikkei 225 fell 1.2% to 50,276 as chip weakness outweighed a firmer yen, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.9% to 26,242, reversing part of Thursday’s jump. China’s October trade data added pressure as exports fell 1.1% year on year and imports rose 1.0%, signaling soft external and domestic demand. The region stays sensitive to AI valuation jitters and incoming China inflation and credit prints this week.

Volatility

• Markets move into this week with a moderate level of unease despite calm price action: the VIX sits around 19, reflecting that investors expect some bumps ahead but are not in full-panic mode. Attention is squarely on Thursday’s US core CPI print and the bond auctions earlier in the week, both of which carry the power to upset the current tone.
• On the options front, the skew for this week’s SPX expiration (14 Nov) indicates that downside puts are being priced more expensively than equivalent calls - suggesting the market is preferring protection over optimism. Based on current pricing, the expected move for SPX into Friday is roughly ±115 points (~1.7%).
• With the economic calendar light today but building, investors should keep an eye on data surprises and geopolitical noise as triggers for elevated volatility.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets opened the week on firmer footing: Bitcoin trades around US $106 k and Ethereum near US $3,610, both off recent lows and reflecting improved risk appetite. Among ETF-adjacent instruments, IBIT is up ~2.8% today and ETHA is up ~4.8%, pointing to renewed investor interest in crypto-exposure vehicles.
• Beyond bitcoin and ether, alt-coins like Solana (~US $167) and XRP (~US $2.47) are also advancing, driven by broader sentiment improvement. That said, crypto remains sensitive to the same macro factors as equities—US inflation data, regulatory announcements, and ETF flow dynamics—so while momentum is building, watch for offsets if risk-off sentiment kicks back in.

Fixed Income

• Treasury yields rebounded, in part on the rebound in sentiment, which was perhaps in part triggered by hopes that the US government shutdown is set to end soon. The benchmark 10-year US treasury yield rose slightly Friday, but gapped higher to open trading overnight, trading 4.135% after Friday’s 4.064% low.
• Japanese government bond yields rose at the long end of the curve on the gap higher in global yields to start the week on hopes for an end to the US government shutdown, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rising above 1.70%, a level that it has reached intraday in October, but not yet closed above.

Commodities

• Gold and silver have started the week in a feisty mood, both rallying as markets weigh signs of US economic weakness against progress toward ending the government shutdown, a development that would resume key data releases and allow the FOMC to focus more firmly on a potential December rate cut. Gold trades firmly above USD 4,046, while silver is testing recent highs just below USD 49.50.
• Crude trades firmer but remains rangebound, supported by improved risk appetite following Friday’s equity rebound and renewed efforts to avoid a prolonged shutdown. Attention now turns to this week’s monthly oil market reports from OPEC, the EIA, and the IEA, starting Wednesday. With Brent having found solid support near USD 60, traders are questioning whether the double top around USD 66.60 will continue to cap the upside.
• Chicago grain futures extended their recent gains, led by soybeans in anticipation of Chinese demand, and on expectations that a reopening of the US government will trigger the return of key reports, including the closely watched WASDE, providing fresh guidance on supply and demand.

Currencies

• The US dollar retreated slightly further on Friday, with EURUSD rallying as high as 1.1591 before retreating, trading 1.1561 this morning. But the JPY remained far weaker than a slightly mixed US dollar, falling broadly across the board to start the week on the jump in global yields as USDJPY trades 154.00 and EURJPY rallied to 178.00.
• AUD strength remains a theme, this time more broadly as the currency rebounded late Friday and followed through strongly in today’s Asian session amidst the rebound in global risk sentiment. AUDNZD hit fresh multi-year highs and AUDJPY surged nearly one percent in overnight trading. Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Hauser said that the Australian economy lacks spare capacity, as Australia’s 2-year yields eye their highest closing level since April.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.