Details Cookies
United Kingdom
Important margin product information

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Macro Dragon: The "Sniffles..." Macro Dragon: The "Sniffles..." Macro Dragon: The "Sniffles..."

Macro Dragon: The "Sniffles..."

Macro 2 minutes to read

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: The "Sniffles..." 

Folks as a pin going forward during this turbulent times, let us please remember:

The Covid-19 crisis with all its challenges, stress, chaos & opportunities will also eventually pass. What defines humanity & ourselves as individuals is how we both individually & collectively act under adversity. Think of how you want to look back over this period, doing your part to keep your family healthy, society healthy & functioning. Keeping a cool head, when others are losing theirs, maintaining an objective list of positive aspects & negative aspects of the policy responses & economic shock the world is/could  go through. And lastly gratitude, sympathy & empathy for one another. Asia got/is getting through this & RoW.

The one big positive from all this, is it reminds us we are all One & we are not at the top of the food chain. Covid-19 does not care if you are rich, poor, what your ethnicity & skin color are, what passport/s you hold, nor what you age or profession is. Our greatest achievements are almost always those that we collectively do with others & sometimes as in this case, as a species. Lastly keep your mind open to growth & opportunities.


Top of Mind…

  • The “sniffles” is apparently what some country presidents in EMs (such as Brazil) are calling the Coronavirus – which has lead crime lords in Brazil’s infamous slums, enforcing their own curfews & stay at home orders to protect the populace, whilst cementing their positions further.
  • Whilst KVP believes that officially its only one of G20 world leaders who has a confirmed cases of the Covid-19 - Bojo. Merkel is still in isolation after being in contact with her doctor was later tested positive – unofficially its likely closer to 25% (5 / 20 of G20). Point here is there is still many world leaders that are just not taking this seriously enough & to be out among the populace shaking hands & hugging people, when we should be working on physical distancing – it just so sends the wrong signals.
  • Most of us are not wired - let alone incentivized - to make near-term sacrifices, for longer term benefits – i.e. to take into account the 2nd & 3rd order affects. And this is the paradox of life, the most successful people KVP knows live in the world of 2nd & 3rd order effects. To paraphrase the words of a leviathan trader that KVP knows, “we are all sitting here around this table & having a good time, yet we are not really all sitting here around this table – having a good time”.  
  • Speaking of signals, say what you want about Trump’s continued mismanagement of the Covid-19 case in the US (from we have it under controlling it’s no big deal, to we are shutting down, to we are back to starting by Easter Sunday, to an extension of the lock-down in parts of the country to the end of April, to this could be 200K of deaths maybe more), his poll numbers are going up!
  • Back to markets, the upside continues as we put in another impressive +3.4% o/n on S&P cash to 2627 – if you recall from last wk’s piece we are now just outside of that key Fibo retracement range of 38.2% 2650 & 50.0% 2793 from the lows. So far the peak to trough has been c. -35% & we are an impressive +20% from the lows.

  • You know the Dragon’s view… lows are likely not in until at least mid to end of April - that timing being a function of peak velocity of the outbreak in the US that KVP feels the mkt is still missing. We are now basically +20% from the Mar 23rd 2192 cash lows. Still feel this is month/quarter end flows & rebalancing, plus a continuation of short covering are  near-term risks. Lastly, still feel there is a massive underappreciation by the market on just the scale of the dislocation that the economy still has to go through, you have Fed member such as Bullard (one of the few who has a reputation for calling a spade a spade) who says unemployment in the US could hit 30%.
  • Could KVP be wrong & the lows in equities are in? Of course… & kudos to those who have been nimble enough to cover shorts, play the upside, do both etc. Bear market or no bear market.
  • KVP script would be sticking with the rest of the plan, would be picking up OTM 20-25 delta puts on the SPX & RTY here (At least 3m, with the idea of either taking profits or cutting loses by E-of month 2), whilst also picking up a basket of Dollar Long calls (similar terms) – we’ll know by E-of April / early May if the Dragon totally missed the boat on the equity floor. And of course, high convictions loosely held, as critical components of a situation changes, so potentially should one’s views.


We could continue to be in a gang buster period of volatility both to the up & down side until at least mid-Apr to back-end of May. Some, time decay is needed in the system, both from a Covid-19 spread (past peak velocity upwards), even bigger & even better government / fiscal / monetary policy response, to overall heads of governments giving this the 2nd & 3rd order consequences thinking that it needs. This to shall pass. Keep you minds & hearts open.  

Good luck to everyone out there, be nimble & position accordingly.  



@SaxoStrats | @KVP_Macro


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.