Macro Dragon: Trump = Teflon Don Macro Dragon: Trump = Teflon Don Macro Dragon: Trump = Teflon Don

Macro Dragon: Trump = Teflon Don

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Daily Cross-Asset Global Views

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations.)



Macro Dragon: Trump is the Teflon Don... 

Before we get into it, for those that are back – or on the way back in – from what was hopefully a restful year-end holiday break, Happy New Years!

Let me sincerely (hand on liver) wish you, your families & teams the best of 2020. May your health, vigor & experiences be excellent & full of fun + laughter. May you continue to grow & develop yourself. May you be awash in gratitude & contribution plus fall [tail] backward into more money than Bezos.

We’ll be shaking things up from KVP’s side, so expect a lot more trade views going forward, as well as 20 long-term trades views for 2020 – which KVP will do a special piece & mini-series on.

Ok let’s get after it…

Early Days… Part III

(here were Parts I & Parts II – & the foundation piece from Monday)

To say this wk has been a dynamic one, would be an understatement – you should see the KVP chat rooms with clients yest, more intra-day 180 degrees than a protractor, yet as covered in the Monday foundation piece: New Year Kicks off with Middle East Conflict – all with the overall skew that in hindsight this is going to be a great tactical opportunity to buy the dip in equities & sell the risk-off wave in the likes of energy, gold, yen, US bond futures, etc.

All super tactical in horizon & views…

Well overnight these were just some of the wicked reversals from the highs/lows:

(note these are un-levered moves, i.e. for FX you have to factor at least +5x to 10x to the rtns)

  • Gold closed -1.14% to $1556, -3.4% from a high of 1611
  • Brent closed -4.2% to $65.44,  -8.8% from a high of 71.75
  • USDJPY closed +0.63% to 109.12, +1.36% from a low of 107.65
  • S&P Futures closed  +0.77% to 3260, +2.49% from a low of 3181

We seem to be in a stand down situation between Iran which has explicitly said they are not looking for a War, which is also something that Trump echoed in his speech Wed evening Asia time (Wed Morning US time).

This is good, this is very good – not only to the KVP bullish skew, but more importantly because war is insane. There were no casualties from the base attacks.   

Here is a link to the text on Trump’s speech overnight, love the closing segment which will be shared below.

Would encourage everyone to read the statement - as its about as presidential, historic & brilliant as these speeches come.

If Obama had given this speech, people would have been over the moon.  

“Finally, to the people and leaders of Iran: We want you to have a future and a great future — one that you deserve, one of prosperity at home, and harmony with the nations of the world.  The United States is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.”

That is not a president seeking war & conflict in the Middle East.

Trump has been very adamant (& absolutely correct) about the wasted spending of American military conflict abroad (its in the trillions!) as well as US blood being spilt in senseless campaigns, that have just not delivered what they intended to (unless you’re a military contractor and Dick Chaney, oh wait…).

Now does this mean, that things are done & dusted in the middle east?

Of course note, the situation is still fluid & who knows if this is really the last of Iranians retaliation.

They have definitely saved face & shown a lot of force in the response to the assassination of their general – i.e. Iran is not to be trifled with, we can also hit back directly.

However it does look – at least for now – that we are past peak conflict and are seeing the best potential scenario that we covered in yesterday’s Macro Dragon.

If this is as bad as it gets, Trump comes out of this like the Teflon Don – this is a major, win.

The paragon of Presidential, to take out the queen chess peace from your opponent at minimal cost.

This is a big deal, will he ever get the credit from the establishment?

Hell no, not in a million years.

But his base will love it, the Reps will love it & folks that may have been on the fence will like it – we are genetically wired to flock towards perceptions of strength & power – be they real or not. And what we have witness over the last wk has been very real. 


Good luck out there today & to finishing the week strong… 

To our Middle East kinfolk happy synthetic Friday & hopefully safe peaceful weekend ahead




On The Radar Today:

(Times would be SGT)

  • AU: Trade Balance which has beat vs. expectations 5.80b a vs 4.10b e   

  • CH: CPI +4.7%e 4.5%p PPI -0.4%e -1.4%p

  • EZ: GER Industrial Production, German Trade Balance, EZ U/R

  • UK: BoE Carney on ze hoot @ 17:30

  • CA: Housing Starts, Building Permits
    =>Poloz @ 03:00

  • US: Weekly Jobless Claims,
    => FOMC’s Clarida @ 21:00 + FOMC Kashkari @ 22:30 + FOMC Williams @ 00:30


What We Are Reading From SaxoStrats:


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992