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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Losses can exceed deposits on some products.
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Macro Digest: The beginning of the end? Macro Digest: The beginning of the end? Macro Digest: The beginning of the end?

Macro Digest: The beginning of the end?

Macro
Steen Jakobsen

Chief Investment Officer

Not only is President Trump preparing to hit China with $200 billion worth of tariffs effective September 6, but here in Europe we have European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation, and Customs Pierre Moscovici in the headlines this morning with a harsh and controversial interview in Italian financial paper Il Sole 24 Ore.

Moscovici told press that Brussels expects a “substantial effort” from Italy on its upcoming budget law, and added that if the EU's 3% deficit/GDP limit is breached, it would create difficulties that he doesn't even want to imagine.

Moscovici seeks a clear commitment to a budget deficit reduction of 6% from Rome, with deficit/GDP staying inside the 3% limit. He also stated that Italy has already been the prime beneficiary of what he terms EU "flexibility", laying down a firm line for Italy's populist coalition government.

Shortly after the publication of Moscovici's remarks, it was announced that Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte will not seek a second mandate... you can hardly blame him!

Unlike the 180-degree turn seen in Greece, there seems to be a deep-seated desire among Italy's populists to confront the EU directly, and for the EU to take them on. This does not bode well for Italian assets, and it will probably spill over into the euro as well. This is the start of "budget season" across Europe, and while it is always a time of headline risk, strikes, and tumult, the stakes are higher this year.
Italy-Germany 10-year gov't yield spread
Italy-Germany 10-year gov't yield spread (source: Bloomberg)
Italian 10-year BTP yield vs. five-year CDS
Italian 10-year BTP yield vs. five-year CDS (source: Bloomberg)
As Italian instability prepares to strike at Europe's heart, a series of linked issues facing China are keeping sentiment negative and slowdown fears front-of-mind.

On August 30, President Trump reportedly told aides that he wants to follow through on a threat to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods as early as next week. According to Business Insider, "that would mean more than half of all Chinese imports would be subject to tariffs". US stocks sold off on the news, which ratchets up the trade war tensions between Beijing and Washington further still and places one of the world's largest and most pivotal trade relationships in jeopardy.

The headline risks for China do not end there. In today's Hong Kong session, shares of Chinese tech giant Tencent plummeted by 5% after authorities announced plans to limit the number of new online games and restrict the amount of time kids spend playing on electronic devices.

Beijing's move, reports Bloomberg, is part of a broad effort to cub social and health ills such as device addiction and myopia among Chinese children, but the push is very unwelcome news for Tencent, which reported a rare decline in profit earlier this month.

With Europe facing its latest round of existential dread, Chinese growth curbed by tariffs on one side and reforms on the other, and Washington seemingly content to persist in its bellicose trade stance, the risks facing world markets are varied, severe, and unlikely to resolve themselves easily.

Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023: The models are broken

  • The models are broken

    The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.

    Steen Jakobsen,
    Chief Investment Officer

    Read article

  • Refitting China’s broken growth engine

    A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.

    Redmond Wong,
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    Read article

  • Broken Europe

    While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.

    Chris Dembik,
    Head of Macroeconomic Research

    Read article

  • A painful phase transition

    As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.

    Peter Garnry,
    Head of Equity Strategy

    Read article

  • Opportunities in a deglobalising world

    New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.

    Charu Chanana,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Is the ‘balanced’ 60/40 equity/bond portfolio a thing of the past?

    For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.

    Peter Siks,
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    Read article

  • China reopening will drive another strong year for commodities

    Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.

    Ole S. Hansen,
    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read article

  • Latecomers to tightening party, EUR and JPY, may prove safest harbours in the first half

    2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.

    John J. Hardy,
    Head of FX Strategy

    Read article

  • China reopening a boon to Australian assets?

    The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.

    Jessica Amir,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Can institutions save crypto before retail vanishes?

    From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.

    Mads Eberhardt,
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, or any of our other products work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The value of your investments can go down as well as up. Losses can exceed deposits on some margin products. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading carries risk.

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