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Macro Brief: All about consumer confidence
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: Yesterday's mildly encouraging German economic data prints should be taken with a grain of salt and this scepticism will likely be confirmed by fresh data today.
Yesterday's market had a bearish tone despite a positive print in Germany. After six consecutive monthly drops, the IFO business climate reached 99.6 vs the consensus expectation of 98.5. However, it is too early to expect a strong rebound of the German economy. While the rebound in expectations is rather encouraging ,overall surveys are still poor.
Looking at the Markit PMI, we don’t notice any real improvement of the economic situation for companies. In addition, we don’t see signs that the German consumer could bring some support to the economy anytime soon. The release this morning of the GfK consumer confidence for April should confirm a slow momentum. The consensus expects the data to be flat, like in March, at 10.8 in April.
We will also get consumer confidence data in the United States. The conference board consumer confidence index is due for March. It should increase slightly around 133.0 because of positive stock returns and overall confidence from consumers.
Elsewhere, several Federal Open Market Committee members are due to deliver speeches, notably the San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly (non-voter) about inflation and the Chicago Fed's Charles Evans (voter) about the state of the global economy.
We will remain cautious regarding the evolution of Brexit talks as the situation remains extremely unclear and Prime Minister Theresa May's position is tenuous.
Today's Calendar (All times GMT)
7:45 France, Q4 GDP and Business climate index in the manufacturing sector
10:30 USA, Evans’ speech
14:00, USA, Conference Board consumer confidence
19:00 USA, Daly’s speech
Looking at the Markit PMI, we don’t notice any real improvement of the economic situation for companies. In addition, we don’t see signs that the German consumer could bring some support to the economy anytime soon. The release this morning of the GfK consumer confidence for April should confirm a slow momentum. The consensus expects the data to be flat, like in March, at 10.8 in April.
We will also get consumer confidence data in the United States. The conference board consumer confidence index is due for March. It should increase slightly around 133.0 because of positive stock returns and overall confidence from consumers.
Elsewhere, several Federal Open Market Committee members are due to deliver speeches, notably the San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly (non-voter) about inflation and the Chicago Fed's Charles Evans (voter) about the state of the global economy.
We will remain cautious regarding the evolution of Brexit talks as the situation remains extremely unclear and Prime Minister Theresa May's position is tenuous.
Today's Calendar (All times GMT)
7:45 France, Q4 GDP and Business climate index in the manufacturing sector
10:30 USA, Evans’ speech
14:00, USA, Conference Board consumer confidence
19:00 USA, Daly’s speech
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