Macro Brief: All about consumer confidence
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: Yesterday's mildly encouraging German economic data prints should be taken with a grain of salt and this scepticism will likely be confirmed by fresh data today.
Looking at the Markit PMI, we don’t notice any real improvement of the economic situation for companies. In addition, we don’t see signs that the German consumer could bring some support to the economy anytime soon. The release this morning of the GfK consumer confidence for April should confirm a slow momentum. The consensus expects the data to be flat, like in March, at 10.8 in April.
We will also get consumer confidence data in the United States. The conference board consumer confidence index is due for March. It should increase slightly around 133.0 because of positive stock returns and overall confidence from consumers.
Elsewhere, several Federal Open Market Committee members are due to deliver speeches, notably the San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly (non-voter) about inflation and the Chicago Fed's Charles Evans (voter) about the state of the global economy.
We will remain cautious regarding the evolution of Brexit talks as the situation remains extremely unclear and Prime Minister Theresa May's position is tenuous.
Today's Calendar (All times GMT)
7:45 France, Q4 GDP and Business climate index in the manufacturing sector
10:30 USA, Evans’ speech
14:00, USA, Conference Board consumer confidence
19:00 USA, Daly’s speech
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)