Macro Brief: A good Eurozone print to start the week
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: As Trump and China rattle sabres over trade, a new investor sentiment survey points to better times in Europe.
The spread between current situation and expectations is also narrowing compared to the peak reached in mid-2018, currently at minus 11.25. We also have a strong improvement in sentiment in Germany as the index is out at 7.9 vs prior 2.1.
All of that tends to confirm that the low point of growth for the Eurozone this year is certainly behind us. Germany, which was facing headwinds both from Turkey and China, is slowing recovering but obviously remains subject to new negative trends in global trade resulting from trade wars. But despite the recent tweets of President Trump threatening China, we remain confident that a trade agreement will be reached between the two countries in coming months. This, along with China’s economic stimulus programme, will help to revive growth.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
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