Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Consensus is calling for a dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve with investors banking on a risk-on push. Saxo, however, sees no change and an IOER cut resulting in a small risk-off move and a correction inside the present bull market.
We continue to think the market is in a sideways formation after the strong run-up in Q1. We see the next risk infliction point coming in July/August where enough time will have passed for the market to realise that improvement in economic activity is not forthcoming, particularly not from a policy response of lower funding costs. That timeline also, and notably, moves us past the conclusion of the China-US trade deal.
Our risk outlook is neutral with a small overweight in long-term US fixed income relative to cash.
For more information about the FOMC decision, click here.
Click here for an excellent update from briefing.com (chart and introductory analysis below).
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
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