Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 5, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 5, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 5, 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 5, 2023

Macro 6 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  Commodities rally picked up steam again with US markets away on Independence Day holiday. This boosted NZD and AUD, despite a pause decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday sending a somewhat dovish surprise. China services PMI will set the tone in Asia today before FOMC June minutes become the focus in the US session later. Electric vehicle carmakers and suppliers key to watch as Tesla China reported higher June deliveries.


What’s happening in markets?

US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): Cash markets closed for Independence day

Cash markets in the US were closed on Tuesday for Independence Day holiday. S&P 500 futures managed to extend their recent gains getting closer to the 4,500 level again underscoring the strong sentiment in equities betting on no recession and inflation will eventually come closer to the policy target. The VIX Index remains below 14 and the US 10-year yield remains bid but still below 3.9%.

Hong Kong & Chinese equities (HK50.I & 02846:xhkg): EVs and geopolitics in focus

Hang Seng Index was up 0.6% and CSI300 up 0.2% as Asian equities extended their strong start of H2 amid inflation relief and expectations that global tightening cycles have peaked. China’s services PMI on the radar today and more geopolitical headlines also remain on watch after China announced a ban of critical chipmaking minerals yesterday and there are also reports that China has cancelled a trip by European Union's Borrell scheduled for next week. Meanwhile, EV sentiment remains in overdrive with Tesla now reporting a strong 20% increase in shipments from its Shanghai factory, signalling that domestic demand is in an upswing. This could bring EV players like BYD, Xpeng and Nio in focus today.

FX: NZD rally extended further

The US dollar treaded water on Tuesday as price action was restricted due to the Independence Day holiday. NZDUSD however continued to ascend, rising to 0.62 handle from lows of 0.6051 last week. Resistance at 0.6250 eyed. AUDUSD also reversed the post-RBA drop to 0.6640 and rose back to the 0.67 handle as commodity prices were higher ahead of China’s services PMI print due today. EURUSD slid back below 1.09 handle with pressure from EURGBP as GBPUSD rose above 1.27 before retreating slightly.

Crude oil: gains return as traders weigh Saudi output cuts

Oil prices gained in a thin trading session yesterday as traders contemplated further curbs in supply after the announcement that Saudi Arabia will extend its unilateral 1mb/d production cut into August. Meanwhile, Russia’s cuts have little impact on the market given it could continue to export oil to continue its war in Ukraine. China’s services PMI due today may be key for oil traders before focus shifts to FOMC minutes in the US session and labor market data in the rest of the week.

Gold: 1930 re-test to continue

Gold prices re-tested the key $1930 level at the start of the week as dollar traded range-bounded due to the US holiday and manufacturing PMI release brought some inflation relief with the slide in prices paid component. Our technical analyst Kim Cramer has noted a bottom and reversal pattern in Gold after it bounced from 1900, and focus remains on $2000. Hawkish FOMC minutes later today may however cause some bumps, and labor market data from the US remains key this week.

 

What to consider?

China Caixin services PMI on the radar

China’s Caixin services PMI for June is scheduled to be released today and expected to remain in expansion at 56.2 despite softening from May’s 57.1. After the manufacturing PMI surprised on the upside this week, there are hopes that services could stay stronger as well with stimulus measures from China starting to flow through to the economy. Still, US-China tensions continue to be on a rise and keep expectations of any Chinese recovery measured. There are also reports that China has cancelled a trip by European Union's Borrell scheduled for next week, further aggravating geopolitical worries.

Reserve Bank of Australia left rate unchanged

The RBA left the policy rate unchanged at 4.10%, which agreed with market pricing of less than 20% odds for the RBA to deliver another hike, but some half of polled analysts were looking for a hike at yesterday’s meeting. The discussion and focus in the statement was largely the same as the prior statement and the key guidance was left unchanged: “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve.”

Tesla China June deliveries up 20% from May

Total shipments of Tesla China is June were reported to be 93,860 cars from the Shanghai factory, preliminary data from China’s Passenger Car Association showed. That compares to 78,906 units shipped in June 2022 and 77,695 units in May. While PCA didn’t break out local deliveries and exports, Tesla typically focuses more on the domestic market in the last month of each quarter.

Meta’s Threads app could be a rival for Twitter

Meta plans to launch a Twitter-rivalling microblogging app called Threads, days after Twitter boss Elon Musk attracted criticism by announcing a temporary cap on how many posts users can read on the social media site. Threads is expected to be released on Thursday and will allow users to retain followers from photo-sharing platform Instagram.

FOMC minutes on tap

The Fed on Wednesday will publish the minutes of its June 13-14 meeting when it held rates steady after 10 straight rate hikes in a unanimous decision despite some divergence appearing in Fed member commentaries ahead of the meeting. The minutes should provide markets greater clarity on the stance of the committee members. The dot plot from the June meeting indicated that two more rate increases are coming this year, including one widely expected in July.

 

For a detailed look at what to watch in markets this week – read our Saxo Spotlight.

For a global look at markets – tune into our Podcast.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992