APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Wed 13 Nov 2019: Trump Smashes Fed, Urges Negative Rates

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations of any kind.)


To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here


APAC Global Macro Morning Brief

Happy Macro Wed 13 Nov 2019: Trump Smashes Fed, Urges Negative Rates

So full overnight session with the US back in class. US cash equities closed a touch higher at 3092 +0.16%, with the Nasdaq-100 about +10bp higher at 8264 +0.27%. DXY continued with the USD strength grind at +0.11% to 98.309

Commodities saw a mixed back with pullbacks in oil, silver & copper along the lines of -0.19% 16.77, -0.53% 62.06 & -0.69% 264.55 - yet bounces in the likes of Palladium by +0.85% 1670 and a sideways move in gold at 1456

Note the moves we have had in the different yield curves are huge, a lot of focus on JGBS which are pretty much flirting with parity… to give you context these puppies were south of -20-30bp just a few months ago

Asia morning sentiment seems to be equal to yesterdays’ bearish, with a hint of… “more bearish pixie dust”…

Key focus overnight was Trump’s speech, click here for full transcript. According to “The Donald” the US/CH ‘phase one’ deal is on track, yet if it does not go through, he is going to rain tariffs down like no tomorrow. He also goes full contact on the Fed, advocating lower rates

"Because remember, we are actively competing with nations who openly cut interest rates so that now many are actually getting paid when they pay off their loan — known as negative interest.  Who ever heard of such a thing? Give me some of that.  (Laughter.)  Give me some of that money.  I want some of that money.  Our Federal Reserve doesn’t let us do it." 

Its worth bearing in mind rest of the wk should see more heat & noise around the impeachment investigations, both from the Democrats, as well as the White House – with the former set to release the transcript from the first call between Trump & Ukrainian president, Zelensky

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Meanwhile in Asia Wed’s morning we’ve seen a hell of surprise from the RBNZ which left rates unchanged at 1.00% when the majority of the market (73% implied prob. of a cut yest) was expecting a cut. We have had a pretty big squeeze in Kiwi Dollar by over +1.30% to 0.6414 as folks have clearly been caught short Kiwi

Last wk the kiwi was also at the bottom of the heap in performance vs. the USD across the G10 with -1.54% (granted it was a dollar smash wk with the DXY up +1.15%). Kudos to ‘Mr. Thailand’ who raised this contrarian take of the implications of an RBNZ that would stay put, on the back of the Q&A that we have on our wkly Macro Mondays

Next RBNZ meeting on 12 Feb 2020 may as well be light years away, there could be quite a bit of follow through in the relative world here. Next RBA is 3 Dec 2019, with a c. 14% chance of a cut. Here is the link to the latest RBNZ statement from this morning

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Again likely the most important even this wk, post Trumps talk overnight will be Fed Chair Powell testimony on the US economy tonight. Here is a link to previous speech by Powell from 18 Sep 2019, to give some context of how he viewed the US & the world at the time

Namaste

-KVP

Today:

• AU: Wage price index 0.5%a/e 0.5%p

• NZ: RBNZ 1.00%a 0.75%e 1.00%p

• EZ: GER Final CPI 1.1%e/p, Industrial Production, Bund Auction

• UK: CPI 1.6%e 1.7%, House Prices

• US: CPI 1.7%e/p, CORE 2.4%e/p
  • FOMC’s Powell testimony on the economy @ 00:00 SGT (11:00 ET)

Other:

• To catch this wk’s Macro Monday Click here…  & replay of the call here

   

• Don’t forget to bookmark & check our Daily SaxoStrats calls from the European morning session c. 09:00 CET

   

• Dembik’s latest Macro View presentation: Slowdown or Meltdown? KVP loves Dembik slides, always nice, simple & clean… also note him flagging the most important chart this month showing China Credit impulse turning into positive territory

   

• Hansen’s latest overview from the CoT report on Commodities as well as Currencies