Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions, they do not constitute any trade or investment advice of any kind.)
To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here
APAC Global Macro Morning Brief
So KVP turned tactically bearish on Thu Asia morning, post Trump signing the HK bill – as we awaited a response from China. Which to be fair, if this is it… it’s a bit of a yawn… looks like some NGOs will be under sanctions & US Warships cannot park in HK… not forceful measures imho
When the news came out, the bullish moves that we initially saw during the day were broadly unchecked, i.e. equities were still well bid as Europe got in, bond yields had big moves with UST getting to 1.8570 before reversing to 1.8189 – above the key pivotal point of 1.80%... this was post a c. 1.77 close last wk…
Gold & silver still closed down, yet off the initial lows of the session yest.
So is this really the start of risk-off or this a speed bump during the Santa Rally? As always… very hard to know… we do know momentum is to the upside & if this is the only response coming out of Beijing, then we are likely to lift up further from here – as it likely means that Phase One is still on the table
Now if Beijing were to top this “Symbolic” move with some more potency, then we could get Santa losing a limb or two
Still lets see, as we start Asia Tues mrn, we are dwn c. -14bp to -22bp on US equity futures, ASX futures are down -1.7% (as Asia catches up with the positive close yest.). KVP would expect gold & silver to be a bit more bid today as they closed down c. -0.11% & -0.69%
Oil also had a rollercoaster session, after Friday sell-off, we initially rallied hard on Monday, before reversing & closing lower on Brent 60.87 -2.5%. Yet WTI which was dwn more than -5% on Fri, still mnged to hold onto gains for a +1.43% lift
Still interesting to see DollarYen already poking it head back above 109 this Tue Asia Mrn, after a -0.47% to 108.98 o/n
Look out for the RBA rate decision later today, which is likely going to be a wash
The market is expecting rates to be on hold, yet the risk is to the downside for a surprise cut… with that said, there is a lot of expectations in the market, so we could get a bid AUDUSD 0.6819 +0.83% o/n, if they are not as dovish in their statement as expected
-
Econ Data O/N:
Pretty big misses in the key Aussie building approvals -8.1%a -1.0%e 7.2%p & Company Operating Profits -0.8%a 1.0%e 4.8%r
We then continued to get the mfg. PMI beats - post the big beats that we had gotten out of China over weekend – as Japan came in at 48.9a 48.6e/p. China Caixin Mfg. PMI beat at 51.8a 51.5e 51.7p
Then GER mfg. rose for 2nd month at 44.1a 43.8e, whilst overall EZ mfg. came in stronger at 46.9a 46.6e. UK figures also had a bounce on the final (had missed on flash) at 48.9a 48.3e
Then the focus yesterday was the US ISM manufacturing miss at 48.1a 49.2e 48.3p. This likely makes the ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers due on Weds, that more key – especially as the service economy of the US is +70% of the economy
Interesting thing is we continue to see this divergence between US ISM mfg. & Markit Mfg., with the latter beating at 52.6a 52.2e.
Lets see how the services data come out tomorrow
-
Wishing everyone a brilliant day ahead
Namaste
-KVP
Today:
Other:
Some Pieces From the Rest of the SaxoStrats Squad
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
