Global Macro APAC Morning Brief - TGIF & Happy Macro Friday, getting ready for WK 42

Global Macro APAC Morning Brief - TGIF & Happy Macro Friday, getting ready for WK 42

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot


(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP/sender of this email & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations.)


Happy Macro Fri 11 Oct 2019

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – TGIF & Happy Macro Friday, getting ready for WK 42...



Quick one today as we get towards the wrap up of the wk. The only clarity on the US / CH Trade War is a lack of clarity… have a feeling we will look back at this period of just one with a lot of noise

With that said, the wkd digestion on the talks thus far will be interesting to say the least – especially with the potential currency pact thrown in for good measure… sure… lets just makes things even “easier”

With all the crazy & bearish headlines this year… its worth noting that at the end of the day, YTD most major equity indices are up double digits & that is in US dollar terms!

KVP still feels that it would be imprudent not to entertain tail-risk hedges given the excellent returns on equities & bonds so far this year…

Q4 & Q1 could bring some interesting risks, from an Elisabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders breaking towards the forefront on the Democratic pedestal – potentially taking the S&P from around these 2900 lvls closer to the 2300 – 2500 range, a c. -20% to -15% pullback, and likely much more on the sectors like biotech…

To an escalation of events in HK… to renewed North Korea nuclear launches to further destabilisation in the Middle East – The US / Turkey / Kurds situation in Northern Syria looks like a train crash in slow motion… likely driving home the point that nearly all wars & conflicts are insane


Next week will see:

  • Most importantly the Oct 15 was the scheduled date for the next round of US tariffs on China to go into effect… so whether or not that get cancelled, delayed, left unchanged or double down on… remains to be Trumped… I mean seen
  • Added to which it will be a shorted wk in the US given Monday is Columbus day so three day wkd for most, which could have an impact on liquidity for the overall wk. JP & CA are also out on Mon
  • Rate decisions out of Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong (where folks have been once again focusing on potential break of the peg… hey HFs have been trying this since the 80s… at least they are consistent… I would not reverse overall hedges on HK… if that 25,500 lvl breaks lower… it could be a big fall)
  • We will also have RBA Oct minutes, where they cut rates by 25bp to the current 75bp… makes you wonder where we will go in the next Australian recession… which close to 3 generations have never seen nor experienced…
  • There are a few central bank governors on the docket, including BoJ’s Kuroda, BoE’s Carney, the Bundesbank’s Weidman & the usual troop of Fed speakers
  • Inflation will also be a theme from an econ data perspective with prints expected out of China, New Zealand, Canada, the UK & the Euro-Zone. Aussie jobs data & China GDP will likely be the biggest potential movers out here in Asia


Econ Data Today:

  • NZ: Business Manufacturing Index
  • CA: Jobs data – employment Change, 11.2K e 81.1k p, U/R 5.7%e/p
  • EZ: German Final CPI 1.2% e/p
  • US: UoM Consumer Sentiment, Import Prices, FOMC Member Rosengren @ 01:15am SGT/HKT (13:15 ET)

4th Quarter Outlook is out: Taking Down The Killer Dollar

  • Please check out our latest quarterly which focuses on the key culprit that is sucking up all the oxygen in the global economy, the strong US dollar

 

Other:

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992