Asia Market Quick Take – 09 July, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 09 July, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: US–Iran clashes intensify, fragile truce strains; Fed minutes signal possible further tightening 
• Equities: China may let top AI firms buy Nvidia H200 chips; SK Hynix ADR oversubscribed 
• FX: USDJPY hits 52-week high; NZDUSD rallies after hawkish RBNZ and strong PMI 
• Commodities: Oil spikes on Iran, copper slides on growth fears, gold pressured by yields 
• Fixed income: US Treasury yields rise on higher oil and hawkish Fed minutes 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• The US struck Iran for a second day to curb threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, revoking Iran’s oil export waiver and threatening further escalation. Iran vowed immediate retaliation and claims to have hit US-linked bases. Both sides accuse each other of violating a fragile truce, jeopardizing stalled peace talks.
• Fed minutes from the June meeting, released Wednesday, showed support among some members for interest rate hikes, adding to hawkish repricing across the front end of the curve. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Panel on July 15 on the semiannual monetary policy report. 
• The RBNZ raised interest rates and signalled further tightening, making the New Zealand dollar the outperformer in the G10 session. 
• Trump threatened to halt all trade with Spain at the NATO summit, though he later said Spain had agreed to pay more on defence and was "very generous." Spanish stocks were the worst-performing major European market on Wednesday as a result.
• The IMF keeps 2026 global growth at 3% and lifts 2027 to 3.4%, citing resilience to the Iran war and strong AI investment but warning of downside risks. It sees global inflation at 4.7% in 2026, easing to 3.9% in 2027. Growth forecasts for 2026/2027: US 2.3/2.2%, China 4.6/4.1%, India 6.4/6.7%, Japan 0.6/0.7%, Eurozone 0.9/1.2%, UK 1.0/1.3%.

Equities:  

• US — S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,482.71, paring a drop of as much as 1.1%, while the Dow Jones slid 1.1% to 52,348.39 — its largest one-day decline since June 10. The Nasdaq edged up 0.2%. Energy led gains as oil surged on Iran tensions, with Valero and Marathon Petroleum hitting record highs. Financials were the worst-performing sector, falling 1.9%. Synchrony Financial was the S&P 500's biggest decliner, falling 9.6%. Microsoft was the largest drag on the index, down 1.4%. In after-hours trading, Levi Strauss fell around 5.8% despite raising full-year guidance, as the EPS guidance midpoint came in below estimates. Costco dropped 1.5% after-hours following June comparable sales that missed estimates. Meta plans a roughly $10 billion, 1GW data center in Alberta, mostly powered by natural gas.
• EU — The Stoxx 600 fell 1.6% — its biggest drop since March 20 — with more than 80% of constituents in the red. The DAX dropped 2.2%, the CAC 40 fell 2.2%, the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 1.8%, and the FTSE 100 lost 1.7%. The selloff was driven by Trump's Iran ceasefire comments and trade threats against Spain. Energy was the only sector in the green. Banks were the biggest laggard, with the Stoxx 600 Banks Index down 3%. In the FTSE 100, HSBC was the largest drag, falling 2.2%, while Endeavour Mining had the steepest decline at 7.1%. In the DAX, Vonovia fell 5.9%. Spanish stocks underperformed, with Santander and IAG each falling over 4%. The DAX VIX surged 20%, its largest move in 18 weeks. Luxshare Precision, Apple's key supplier, is set to begin trading in Hong Kong on Thursday after raising HK$24.3 billion in the city's biggest listing of 2026.
• Asia — Japan's equity rally is reportedly shifting focus beyond AI toward defence and infrastructure sectors that may benefit from PM Takaichi's latest economic policy plan. Tokyo Electron is reportedly planning to cut chip gear delivery times by half, according to Nikkei. In Korea, Kospi 200 futures closed up 4.1% on Wednesday. SK Hynix's US listing is reportedly more than seven times oversubscribed. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 2.1% on Wednesday, with the MSCI China Index up 2.9%. China plans to allow top AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips, according to reports. AI firm Zhipu is reportedly planning to sell $4 billion of shares after a 1,500% rally. In Singapore, Del Monte Pacific flagged going concern risks.

Earnings this week: 

• Thursday – Pepsico, Byrna, WD-40 
• Friday – Delta Airlines 

Key Event this week: 

• Friday - SK Hynix ADR listing 

FX:

• USDJPY climbed 0.31% to 162.61, a new 52-week high and fourth straight daily gain, with markets wary of potential Japanese intervention as JGBs face pressure from higher oil and a 5-year auction. 
• The standout G10 gainer was NZDUSD, up 0.39% to 0.5700 after the RBNZ hiked rates and flagged a stronger-than-expected recovery, backed by a jump in the manufacturing PMI to 59.7, while signalling a wide range of possible policy paths. 
• GBPUSD rose 0.23% to 1.3390, outperforming its European peers despite a continental equity selloff, whereas EURUSD was essentially flat at 1.1420 with options turning more bearish as higher oil clouds the euro’s recent rebound. 
• AUDUSD finished little changed at 0.6928 after reversing an intraday drop following Trump’s Iran ceasefire comments, with the oil rally cushioning risk-off pressure, and USDCAD fell 0.20% to 1.4173, its biggest decline since July 2, as higher crude prices supported the loonie.  
• USDMXN gained 0.36% to 17.5799, its highest since June 24, extending its two-day rally to 1.10%.

Commodities: 

• Brent oil jumped nearly 7% Wednesday, briefly above $80/bbl, and WTI logged its biggest gain in five weeks, hitting a two-week high. The rally was driven by Trump declaring the Iran ceasefire “over,” revoked Iranian oil waivers, and strikes on Kharg Island. WTI added another 1.4% to ~$74.50/bbl early Thursday after confirmation of a second night of US strikes.
• LME copper slid 1.5% to $13,165.50/MT Wednesday, its largest drop since June 24, with Comex down 1.9%, as Trump’s Iran comments stoked growth fears. The move contrasted sharply with the oil surge; copper has fallen in four of the past five sessions and is now 8.95% below its 52-week high.
• Gold fell for a third straight session, hovering near $4,080/oz in early Asia Thursday. Despite heightened geopolitical risk, traders are treating the Iran escalation primarily as an inflationary shock via higher oil, reinforcing expectations of “higher for longer” rates rather than triggering classic safe-haven demand.

Fixed income:  

• US Treasuries weakened Wednesday as higher oil prices and hawkish tones in Fed minutes revived inflation and rate-hike concerns. The 2-year yield hit 4.23% intraday, near its June peak and the highest since February 2025, before closing 1–2 bps higher on the day. 
• A 10-year auction tailed through when-issued by 0.6 bps at 4.58% — the highest auction yield since February 2025 — with the lowest dealer take since January, highlighting strong indirect demand even at elevated yields. 
• The 30-year held above 5% at 5.076%. JGBs also sold off, with 20- and 30-year yields rising 5 bps to 3.86% and 3.99%, respectively, as oil-driven inflation worries pressured global duration. Growing AI-related bond issuance is adding a structural upward bias to global yields.

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