Asia Market Quick Take – 05 August, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 5 August, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: Bessent highlights possibility of US-Iran deal soon 
• Equities: S&P 500 hit record with Palantir up 29% on strong earnings
• FX: Oil–Iran headlines reverse early USD strength; JPY volatile, AUD rebounds on softer USD 
• Commodities: Brent -5.3% to $79, lowest since Jul 10; LME copper >$14k/t, 2-month high. 
• Fixed income: US Treasuries rallied; 2Y yield lowest since Jul 20 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, noting that some ships are already transiting the strait.
• Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.4% year-on-year in June 2026, slightly above May’s revised 3.3% and in line with forecasts. It was the 54th consecutive month of nominal wage growth and the fifth with gains above 3%. Base pay also increased 3.4%. Real wages rose 1.6% for a sixth month, bolstering the case for further central bank rate hikes.
• New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2, the highest since 2015 and above expectations. Employment was steady at 66.7%, participation increased to 70.7%, and underutilisation climbed to 13.8%, signaling more labour market slack.
• US factory orders fell 0.3% in June 2026 to $656.5 billion after a 1.1% drop in May, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise. Non-durable goods orders fell 1.2%, while durable goods rose 0.5%, with gains in machinery and electronics offset by weaker fabricated metals and transportation equipment.
• US job quits rose by 79,000 to 3.23 million in June 2026, led by leisure and hospitality, trade/transportation/utilities, and construction. The quits rate stayed at 2.0%, near its lowest since 2020, indicating workers remain cautious about changing jobs.
• US job openings fell by 178,000 to 7.36 million in June 2026, below expectations. Hires held at 5.3 million and separations at 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
• US imports fell 1.8% in June 2026 to $388 billion, with goods down on weaker capital and consumer goods, partly offset by more telecom equipment. Services imports rose slightly, led by intellectual property, transport, and insurance, while travel declined.

Equities:  

• US — The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, gaining 1.8% to 7,736.52, its first record since June. The Dow Jones rose 907 points (+1.7%) to a fresh all-time high of 54,085.88, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.6% to 26,585 and the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.3% — its best single-day outperformance versus the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 on record. Palantir soared 29% after raising its full-year revenue and profit forecasts. Caterpillar beat earnings estimates. Chipmakers posted their best four-day rally since 2020. Gartner surged 23% on earnings. After hours, SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, well above the $6.81 billion estimate but fell 7%, while AMD fell 9% after issuing a Q3 outlook of $13b, which was below some estimates.
• EU — European stocks hit a record high on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.7% to 656.86, its first closing record since 3 July. Italy's FTSE MIB and France's CAC 40 also scaled new peaks. The DAX gained 0.8% to 26,202. Miners led gains as copper rose above $14,000 per tonne — a two-month high — with Antofagasta surging 6.9%. ASML rose 3.7% and Bayer climbed 2.4% on an unexpected profit beat. Zalando and Lufthansa were notable laggards, with Lufthansa cutting guidance.
• Asia — Asian equities on Tuesday struggled to follow Wall Street's tech-led rally, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.5%. The Kospi whipsawed, falling as much as 2.8% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix extended losses, with the index remaining highly volatile following its historic 18% surge on Friday and subsequent 5.1% drop on Monday. The Nikkei declined 0.9% to 63,171 and the Topix fell 0.5% to 3,940, weighed by underwhelming earnings and yen intervention jitters. Hong Kong and Taiwan also retreated. Southeast Asian benchmarks outperformed. WuXi AppTec surged up to 14.6% in Hong Kong after raising FY26 guidance sharply. Techtronic beat 1H estimates. Looking ahead, futures for Japan, Australia and South Korea (Kospi futures +4.9%) all pointed higher overnight, tracking Wall Street's record close and Hormuz deal optimism.

Earnings this week: 

• Wednesday: Walt Disney, Uber, Shopify, SanDisk, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Block, Honda
• Thursday: Molson Coors, Monster Beverage, Warner Bros Discovery, Airbnb, SoftBank Group, DBS, Nintendo, Orix 
•  Friday: OCBC 

FX: 

• USD finished slightly softer, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down about 0.1% as Treasury yields and oil prices fell.
• USDJPY still posted the widest G10 range (157.18–157.96) and ended modestly higher on the day, with Bessent warning that current yen levels could spur competitive devaluations across Asia. 
• AUDUSD saw the largest move among commodity FX, trading between 0.6996 and 0.7048 before closing near the highs as oil retreated. 
• NZD is likely capped near 0.59 against USD, according to Westpac, after New Zealand's Q2 jobs report showed a higher unemployment rate and subdued wage growth, reinforcing expectations for further RBNZ easing.
•  The yuan strengthened onshore and offshore despite a weaker-than-expected PBOC fix, with USDCNY closing at 6.7492. 

Commodities: 

• Brent fell 5.3% on Tuesday to settle around $79 per barrel — its lowest since 10 July — as Hormuz deal optimism intensified. WTI declined toward $75 per barrel. Oil has now lost more than 10% over two sessions. 
• LME copper rose above $14,000 per tonne on Tuesday, its highest in two months, as traders monitored ballooning US inventories ahead of an expected Trump administration decision on import tariffs. The copper cash-to-3-month spread rose sharply to $102.38 per tonne, its highest since October 2025, signalling tightening near-term supply.
• Gold rose alongside Treasuries on Monday as US-Iran tensions eased and oil prices fell, with the metal benefiting from its dual role as an inflation hedge and safe haven. 

Fixed income:  

• US Treasuries rallied as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for more than one Fed rate hike in the coming year. Yields fell 4–6 basis points across the curve, with the 10-year at 4.625%, the 2-year at its lowest since 20 July, and the 30-year at 5.187%. The 5s30s spread steepened modestly to 85.3 basis points.
• Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) is due today at 8:30am ET and represents the key near-term risk for the bond market. Dealers broadly expect the Treasury to reiterate its guidance of no near-term increases in coupon auction sizes, though any deviation could halt this week's rally. 
• Japan FX intervention and Treasury repatriation risk remain a structural concern for the bond market. Japan's use of Treasury holdings as collateral via the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility may soften — but not eliminate — the pressure on US bonds from yen-support operations. JPMorgan raised its year-end forecasts for 10- and 30-year Treasury yields, citing rising inflation expectations and the potential for increased term premium, while BlackRock sees long-dated yields continuing to rise even if the Fed resists hiking.

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