Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI, geopolitics and dovish pivots from ECB and Bank of Canada in focus Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI, geopolitics and dovish pivots from ECB and Bank of Canada in focus Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI, geopolitics and dovish pivots from ECB and Bank of Canada in focus

Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI, geopolitics and dovish pivots from ECB and Bank of Canada in focus

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  This week’s US CPI will be a key test of whether inflation jump of the last two months was a bump in the disinflation road or markets need to push expectations of rate cuts further out the curve. Despite consensus looking for a softer inflation print, dollar may not have a lot of room to give as other major central banks such as the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada embrace dovish narratives. Any easing of geopolitical tensions could bring reversal of gains in NOK and precious metals.


massive outperformance from precious metals last week despite higher yields, along with oil and commodity gains underpinning NOK, AUD and NZD.
Our FX Scorecard shows momentum turning negative for CAD after poor jobs data last week could spark a dovish tone from BOC this week.
Forex COT to the week of April 2 saw dollar longs extending further on the back of selling in EUR and JPY while GBP longs were added again.

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