Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Weekly FX Chartbook: Stretched USD strength is raising intervention alert
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: Stretched momentum and positioning continue to make it hard for the US dollar to extend gains, but there is still a lack of urgency to be short dollars. Key risks stem from intervention from Japan, particularly as Bank of Japan meets on Friday and the usual dovish narrative could prompt USDJPY to test 155+ area. Dovish repricing scope still seen for CAD and GBP, and a correction appears to be looming for Gold.
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Other recent Macro/FX articles:
22 Apr: Global Market Quick Take - Asia
19 Apr: FX 101: Using FX for portfolio diversification
18 Apr: JPY: Intervention alert, or a BOJ alert?
16 Apr: Chinese Yuan’s Double Whammy - Dollar Strength and Yen Weakness
12 Apr: Riding the Fed-ECB Policy Divergence
11 Apr: ECB rate decision: How to trade the event
9 Apr: CAD vulnerable as market underprices dovish Bank of Canada risks
9 Apr: US inflation report: How to trade the event
8 Apr: Macro and FX Podcast: NFP, CPI, ECB and Japan
8 Apr: Weekly FX Chartbook: US CPI, geopolitics and dovish pivots from ECB and Bank of Canada in focus
3 Apr: Chinese yuan bears are undeterred by PBoC’s grip
3 Apr: FX Quarterly Outlook: The rate cut race shifts into high gear
25 Mar: Macro & FX Podcast: Swiss central bank surprises; PCE and China
25 Mar: Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism
22 Mar: Swiss National Bank’s bold move will kickstart the G10 rate cut cycle
20 Mar: Thematic Podcast: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates
20 Mar: Japan’s exit from negative rates: Implications for the economy, yen and stocks
14 Mar: FOMC vs. BOJ: Who moves the Yen?
12 Mar: Dampening equity sentiment could test GBP resilience
11 Mar: US inflation report: How to trade the event
11 Mar: Macro & FX Podcast: Have soft landing hopes turned into expectations?
11 Mar: Weekly FX Chartbook: JPY eying wage talk headlines and US CPI
6 Mar: Bitcoin fever is running high, again
5 Mar: FX & Macro Podcast: US jobs data, China's "Two Sessions" & Super Tuesday
28 Feb: Navigating Japanese equities: Strategies for hedging JPY exposure
23 Feb: Nvidia momentum spills over to FX markets
21 Feb: Central bank divergence on the radar: Hawkish RBNZ, Dovish BOC and SNB
15 Feb: Swiss Franc’s bearish view gets more legs
14 Feb: Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable
9 Feb: Japanese Yen is throwing a warning
8 Feb: FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar
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