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Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - Will the massive sell-off in USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY end? Find key levels here
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
USDJPY sell-off over the past couple of weeks accelerated Fridan and this morning taking the pair below several support levels
USDJPY is now trading back to around December 2023/January 2024 levels. Support at around 140.80-140.25 could be tested
The strength indicator RSI with values around 10-12 is in extremely oversold territory. RSI ranges from 0 to 100 and below 20 is considered oversold. However, that does not mean that an instrument in this case USDJPY cannot drop further.
An asset can stay oversold for quite some time and there is currently no bottom and reversal indications for USDJPY. And there is no divergence on RSI which could indicate (down)trend exhaustion
However, if USDJPY drops to the 140.25 level a bounce could be seen, but if USDJPY takes out 140, there is further downside potential to around 138.
If USDJPY is closing back above 142.85 we could see a rebound towards 145-146.
EURJPY spiked just below support at around 155.05. The strength indicator RSI with values around 10-12 is in extremely oversold territory.
However, if EURJPY takes out today’s low at 154.40 the pair could drop to stronger support around 153.
If it can stay above 155 there is rebound potential to 158 possibly 160 AUDJPY has been spiking down to the support around 90.23 but is now bouncing off lows.
The strength indicator RSI with values around 10 is in extremely oversold territory. However, if AUDJPY drops below 90 the selling pressure could resume with potential down to around 87.
If closing above 91.80 there could be further rebound potential in store for AUDJPY up to around 93.70
GBPJPY is trading in the consolidation area between 184.30 and 178.50, and is likely to test the lower band at around 178.75. If the 178.75 is not broken a rebound to around 184.30 could be seen.
Similar to the other JPY pairs, the strength indicator RSI with values around 10-12 is in extremely oversold territory. If GBPJPY can close back above 184.30 there could be further rebound potential to 187.80
A close below 178.50 could fuel another vawe of selling down to 176.25
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