Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY: Will strong rebound turn to bullish trend?

Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY: Will strong rebound turn to bullish trend?

Forex 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  JPY crosses bouncing strongly following last week’s sell-off. Uptrends could resume but keep an eye on support levels


USDJPY has bounced strongly from strong support at around 141.55 currently testing the 0.786 retracement at 146.24 of last week’s sell-off.
The bounce could continue to test resistance at around 147.50

RSI is at the time of writing breaking above its falling trendline and above 40 threshold suggesting the sell-off in USDJPY is done. RSI is however, still in negative sentiment also pointing to lower levels. USDJPY is truly in a bit of a limbo

If USDJPY is closing above 147.50 a move to key resistance at around 149.75 and 0.786 retracement is in the cards. A close above 149.75 will confirm bullish trend with potential to take out 151.95 peak.

However, there is strong overhead resistance with the 55 DMA coming down and the Cloud area laying just above the 147.50 level. If USDJPY is sliding back below 144.75 the support at around 141.55 could come under pressure

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

EURJPY spiked below 200 DMA to the support at around 153.08 to bounce to close back above 155.52. The rebound is continuing today with EURJPY testing the rising trend line from underside and the resistance at around 157.70. a close above 157.70 could extend the rebound to the 0.618 retracement at around 159.67.

A close above 159.70 the uptrend has resumed.

However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment and no divergence suggesting the bearish move could resume. If EURJPY is breaking back below 155.50 the 153.08 support is likely to come under pressure once again, and likely taken out

AUDJPY bounced strongly from just above the 200 DMA and support around 93.58.
Currently above the Cloud and if EURJPY closing above 96.10 further upside to the 0.618 at 96.68 and even to the 0.786 retracement at 97.50 could be seen  

If AUDJPY is sliding back below 94.90 downtrend is resuming and could test the 93.58 support once again. IF that scenario plays out expect a move down to 92.80

GBPJPY has bounced back above the Cloud (Shaded area) and the 110 and 55 DMA’s. The bounce seems likely to continue to the 0.618 retracement at around 184.80 and resume uptrend.

If closing above 184.80 a move to previous peak around 188.80 is in the cards.

If GBPJPY is sliding back below the Cloud support at 181.07 is being testing. A close below downtrend is resuming with a potential bearish move to 176.25

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992