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Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - USDCHF and EURCHF propelling higher. EURCHF to reach par?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
- Third time is a charm. USDCHF broken above key resistance after two previous tries following the SNB's rate decision. 0.90-0.91 in the horizon, maybe even 0.92 level
- EURCHF's bullish move, marked by its break above significant technical levels, points to potential further upside. Could it move to par?
UDCHF is now seemingly headed towards the next significant resistance and 0.786 retracement at around 0.9050, with a potential spike to the 0.91 level also in sight.
Should USDCHF close above 0.9050, it could signal further uptrend towards the 0.92 to 0.9245 range, with 0.9245 marking the peak of October 2022.
The daily RSI's positive sentiment with no divergence, supports the likelihood of higher USDCHF levels.
On the weekly chart, the RSI is nearing the 60 mark, and a close above this level would confirm the bullish picture.
Conversely, if USD/CHF retreats below 0.89, it would undermine the current bullish perspective
EURCHF is experiencing a significant bullish movement, currently testing the resistance at around 0.9775 after surpassing a minor resistance at 0.97.
This bullish move follows the pair's break above a falling trendline that dates back to January 2022 and its break back above the 200 Daily Moving Average, signaling a strong upward momentum.
On the weekly chart, EURCHF has reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area for a short-term correction before the likelihood of further upward movement.
Should EURCHF close above the weekly Ichimoku Cloud (Shaeded area), it could set the stage for a rise to the 0.786 retracement at 0.9917, though a minor pullback might occur in the short term.
Both daily and weekly RSIs are reflecting positive sentiment with no divergence, suggesting that higher levels for EUR/CHF could be on the horizon
However, if the pair retreats below 0.97, it could negate this bullish outlook
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