Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index at key support and resistance levels Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index at key support and resistance levels Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index at key support and resistance levels

Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index at key support and resistance levels

Forex 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  EURUSD bouncing from key strong support at 1.0635. Could be a larger rebound
GBPUSD continuing its decline and could drop to 1.23 key support before a correction
EURGBP once again testing falling trendline in Descending triangle pattern. Is this the time for a break?
Dollar Index still got room to 105.80 but uptrend stretched

EURUSD is trading in a falling channel pattern. The support around the middle of the Consolidation area at 1.0685 didn’t hold on for long and EURUSD dropped to the key strong support at around 1.0635.

1.0635 is a key support both short- and medium-term. It is the lowest level in the reversal and Consolidation area back in May/June and as can be seen on the weekly chart; 55 Moving Average is coming up around that level adding support and RSI seems to be bouncing from 40 threshold i.e., still in bullish sentiment. A bounce could be seen short-term possibly up to the upper falling trendline on daily chart but a move up to the 0.382 retracement should not be ruled out

The daily 55 and 100 Moving Averages are declining currently just above the 0.382 retracement level thus limiting the upside potential.

There is no RSI divergence on the daily RSI suggesting lower levels on EURUSD, possibly after a correction

If EURUSD closes below 1.0635 the downtrend is set to continue with next support at around 1.05
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

GBPUSD has dropped below the 200 Moving Average cancelling its RSI divergence. GBPUSD seems set to slide lower to support at around 1.23
1.23 is a key support both short- but especially also on medium-term – see weekly chart

Medium-term GBPUSD has broken bearish out of its rising Wedge like pattern
55 weekly AM is coming up just below the 1.23 support adding to the support strength
RSI still in positive sentiment

A weekly close below 1.23 will confirm downtrend also on the medium-term
However, a rebound from 1.23 should be expected. A rebound that could take GBPUSD to test the upper falling trend line on the daily chart

EURGBP is testing the upper falling trendline in what could be a Descending triangle like pattern. Break out is needed for direction and break out direction is 50/50 up/down.

If breaking out bullish there is upside potential to around 0.8750-0.88 but the price should at least move to the highest peak in the triangle i.e., at around 0.87.

Some resistance at around 0.8668
If breaking bearish out of the triangle there is downside potential to 0.8350

Dollar Index uptrend is weakening indicated by RSI divergence, RSI values have been declining as Dollar Index has moved higher.
However, there is no strong resistance until around 105.80

As can be seen from the weekly chart 105.80 is a strong resistance level
The Dollar Index is currently trading above the 55 weekly Moving Average which is declining meaning the underlying sentiment is weighing heavy on the Index.
A correction could be imminent and quiet possible before reaching the 105.80 resistance.

Some support at around 104.45. Strong support at around 102.86

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992