Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: EURUSD in downtrend eyeing 1.03. Dollar Index rejected at resistance but set to move higher. USDJPY struggling at resistance seems ready for a minor correction before uptrend resumes
EURUSD bounced off 0.618 retracement at 1.0532. Still below 21 and 55 daily Moving Average and RSI is in negative sentiment strongly indicating lower EURUSD.
A move down to the 200 daily Moving Average around 1.03 possibly dipping down to strong support at around 1.0220 is in the cards. Minor support at 1.0481
A close above 1.0805 will reverse the downtrend.
Dollar Index was rejected at the 0.618 retracement but the trend is up with the RSI in positive sentiment and no divergence. Minor correction could be over and the Dollar Index could be set for another leg higher.
A move that is likely to take the Index to the 0.786 retracement and the 200 daily Moving average around 106.35.
For the Dollar index to reverse the uptrend a move below 102.39 is needed.
USDJPY is struggling to close above the 0.382 retracement at 136.53 after testing it for the past four days. Both 100 and 200 daily Moving Averages are adding to the resistance area. USDJPY has formed a rising wedge like pattern indicating we could see a correction after the February bullish move. A correction is in the cards but a correction might bit small, possibly only down to 0.382 retracement and support around 132.90 possibly dipping down to the 55 daily Moving Average before bull trend is likely to resume. RSI is positive supporting the bullish outlook.
A bearish break of the lower rising trendline will be first indication of a correction scenario to play out.
If USDJPY breaks bullish out of the Rising wedge the pattern is demolished with further upside to be expected.
Resistance at around 137.85 and 142.25
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)