Technical Update - USDJPY uptrend looks stretched and is facing strong resistance. Can it break it? Technical Update - USDJPY uptrend looks stretched and is facing strong resistance. Can it break it? Technical Update - USDJPY uptrend looks stretched and is facing strong resistance. Can it break it?

Technical Update - USDJPY uptrend looks stretched and is facing strong resistance. Can it break it?

Forex 2 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

USDJPY in steepest trend in 30+ years is facing strong resistance at 147.65, peak from 1998. Trend is stretched and USDJPY is forming a rising wedge top and reversal pattern 


USDJPY Earlier this week buyers manage to break and close above the resistance at 145.
145 was the 1.618 projection of the July correction.
At the time of writing USDJPY is breaking above the peak of the very volatile trading day 22nd September. The energy from that day suggests USDJPY could move to the Fibonacci projection 1.382 at 148 but 1.618 projection at around 149.34 is not unlikely. If that scenario unfolds USDJPY will be testing the upper trendline in what looks like a rising wedge pattern (two black rising lines). Short-term uptrend is a bit stretched indicated by divergence on RSI but the uptrend is intact.  

However, as can be seen from the monthly chart there is strong resistance at 147.65. 
147.65 is the peak in 1998 and within few cents also the length of the 3rd vawe from 2012 to 2015. The uptrend since 2021 is the steepest and fastest the past 30+ years and it is quite stretched. There is still no divergence on RSI however, but since October is still not over the jury is still out. 
A possible scenario could be for USJPY to spike above the 147.65 to 148-149 and then exhaust.

If USDJPY closes below the lower trendline of the rising wedge on the daily chart it is a strong indication of trend reversal. Break out for wedges usually occurs 2/3 of the way to the apex (where the two lines meet) and we are approximately 60% of the way.
If USDJPY closes above the upper trendline this Wedge reversal scenario has been demolished.     



Source: Saxo Group
Source: Saxo Group

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.