Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - USDJPY taking out July peak and is now set for higher levels
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
USDJPY took out July peak just at 139.39 and is set for higher levels.
How high USDJPY can go is best illustrated on the monthly chart. 142.56 is the 1.618 projection of the top to bottom of the Triangle correction from 2016 till 2021. 1.764 projection is at 146.52.
Add to that the 100% Extension of what appears to be the third wave is at 147.65 which is spot on the 1998 peak i.e. if this is wave 5 (which is certainly looks like) it could become as long as the third wave.
Usually, the third wave is the longest but in Commodities and sometimes in FX the fifth is the longest.
Nevertheless, there is no strong resistance before around 147.65, a scenario described in this analysis from June 2022: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/ta-usdjpy-21062022
On the daily chart 1.382 projection of the recent correction is 142.73, close to the bigger picture 1.618 projection at 142.56 mention above.
1.764 projection is at 146.27. Bottom line a cluster of Fibonacci Projection and Extension levels at the almost the same price levels. There is no divergence on RSI which is above 60
To reverse this bullish outlook a collapse and close below 130.38 is needed.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy