The G-10 rundown
USD – appreciation from here (especially a push down through 1.1000 in EURUSD, which gets the broader USD measures in overdrive) would begin to lean against risk appetite generally, particularly in EM.
EUR – the euro price action remains uninspiring, but EURUSD looks heavy again and there may be complacency on the downside risk, given the glacial pace of its descent over the last 12 months.
JPY – the yen has failed to strengthen to the degree one would expect, given long bond yields remaining pegged toward the lows. Would still expect to generally correlate with broader USD direction.
GBP – sterling putting up a fight lately, but need a new breakthrough to take EURGBP down through 0.9000 (and GBPUSD looking a bit ambitious here without new developments as well.)
CHF – the consolidation moves are weak as long global bond yields remain pegged near the lows. Any roll over in risk sentiment could set EURCHF to new lows toward the 1.0650 area.
AUD – AUDUSD leaning heavily lower on the USD strength and set for new lows for the cycle if USD strength continues.
CAD – CAD on the defensive as yields at the front end of the CA yield curve collapse back toward the lows for the cycle.
NZD – kiwi under the Aussie’s thumb as AUDNZD makes progress toward our 1.0700 target.
SEK and NOK – Household lending in Sweden still below 5% YoY growth – rising risk of Swedish recession. Norway’s Q2 GDP numbers up tomorrow. Strong USD and/or risk off could push SEK and NOK further over the edge.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 0730 – Sweden Jul. Retail Sales
- 1620 – US Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) to speak