The G10 rundown, express edition
USD – an impressively dovish turn from the Fed and makes sense to see the USD knee-jerk lower – but the magnitude of the move underwhelms – trainwreck ahead if we get immediate reversal already today – for the moment, we’ll sit on our hands.
EUR – EURUSD struggling to maintain 1.1400 after a profound dovish turn from the Fed – not impressed – but would have to see a full reversal and close below 1.1350 today for sense that the USD is going to reject yesterday’s reaction.
JPY – if global markets decide they have over-celebrated the policy punchbowl having been rushed back to the party, the JPY stands to benefit the most.
GBP – as per above, if May’s deal fails, then longer delay more likely than No Deal in last minute disaster avoidance – and this not necessarily GBP positive?
CHF – would expect directional sympathy with JPY in the crosses.
AUD – market celebrates headline jobs figures and dovish Fed, but caution – the Australian central bank is going to ease and risk off would do the AUD no favours. Contrarian on AUD strength.
CAD – hardly impressive reaction to the Fed – if US economy is weak and the Fed cutting, the Bank of Canada will be doing the same and perhaps greater risks to the Canadian economy from private debt levels.
NZD – kiwi stretches higher still on a solid Q4 GDP print. Getting increasingly contrarian on NZDUSD from here, but need a technical setup to generate trading interest.
SEK – approaching pivotal zone in EURSEK if we dip below 10.40 – hard to get enthusiastic for a significant run lower if EU data fails to pick up. Interesting test with tomorrow’s flash March EU PMIs
NOK – productive on NOK, but Norges Bank will need to deliver on guidance and upside may prove a bit curtailed if global growth outlook concerns rise from here. Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
0900 – Norway Norges Bank Rate Announcement
0930 – Norway Norges Bank Press Conference
0930 – UK Feb. Retail Sales
1200 – UK Bank of England Meeting
1230 – US Philadelphia Fed Survey
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage
2200 – Australia Mar. Flash PMI’s