The G-10 rundown
USD – The greenback looks firm here though volatility is incredibly constrained. Watching for technical developments, Brainard tomorrow and jobless claims on Wednesday with most interest.
EUR – the euro is weak, and not just versus the US dollar. Wondering if the market is slightly misreading Lagarde’s comments last week on a policy review, but will take some time to sort that out. For now, a daily close below 1.1000 could trigger a slide to the sub-1.0900 lows.
JPY – risk appetite up and bond yields up means tough sledding for the yen.
GBP – sterling looking firm as the market looks for a Boris Johnson win and bad data may ironically prove more supportive as it builds the energy behind the potential margin of victory and the eventual fiscal response.
CHF – backdrop looks CHF-negative, but EURCHF rather inert below the key 1.1050 area, while USDCHF getting a bit interesting and garner attention if it can poke above parity.
AUD – if the news overnight on China’s IP policy is supposed to indicate brighter hopes for a friendly US-China trade negotiation outcome, then AUD not paying attention. Lowe will be out speaking twice tonight.
CAD – USDCAD has done about all it can to the upside without a broader USD signal, which is likely needed if the range highs are to yield for a more notable push higher into 1.35, though CAD is also vulnerable in the crosses if our concerns on US recession risks are borne out.
NZD – Watching the Q3 Retail Sales report up late today – a bit tardy stuff, given we are more than halfway through Q4, but NZD looks a bit stretched to the upside in places and may be sensitive to bad news. As well, we’ve seen a bit of weak credit card spending data over the last few months. RBNZ out with its Financial Stability Review tomorrow late for us in Europe, with Governor Orr press conference to follow.
SEK – EURSEK is poking at new lows, a break of the very well established range above 10.60 – is SEK finally being rewarded for the Riksbank’s clear intent to hike rates back to zero? Next test is down into 10.50-40.
NOK – recent rejection of the attempt below 10.05 in EURNOK was rejected, but the pair is heavy again and the backdrop supportive (risk appetite, etc..) so another go may finally see the bears rewarded with a better confirmation that the top is in. The next zone of interest down into 9.85 area.
Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 0900 – Germany Nov. IFO
- 1330 – US Oct. Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- 1530 – US Nov. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
- 1800 – ECB’s Lane to Speak
- 2145 – New Zealand Q3 Retail Sales
- 2350 – Australia RBA’s Debelle to Speak
- 0000 – US Fed Chair Powell to Speak