The G-10 rundown
USD – an interesting set of Fed speakers out today, but market probably rightly assumes that central bankers have given up on doing anything and that everything will be up to the political, fiscal cycle. Longer term, we would suggest that the market is under-pricing the risk of a Sanders presidency.
EUR – the euro struggling for air after an incredibly persistent run lower on fears of weak growth and political dysfunction keeping fiscal stimulus signals weak and tardy.
JPY – as noted above, the weak JPY despite still firm safe haven bonds is a possible game changer if it persists.
GBP – the CPI prints a bit higher than expected for January even as the pound has strengthened and this will have the market less concerned that the BoE will consider any cuts from here, especially given the prospects of a powerful fiscal stimulus in the works.
CHF – the franc strength ebbs a bit on this latest bounce in risk sentiment and USDCHF pokes to a new high – would expect correlation with USDJPY there.
AUD – the AUDUSD is down but not yet out as await the latest employment data from Down Under tonight. Time to look for fiscal signals as a possible support for the currency soon.
CAD – the USDCAD bulls facing setback risks here if commodities and risk sentiment continue to bounce – more cautious for calling CAD lower for now.
NZD – minor bump in kiwi overnight after RBNZ Governor Orr waxes positive on the NZ economy in testimony overnight, but no real reaction in NZ rates. Still watching for prospects for AUDNZD rally – i.e., waiting for Godot.
SEK – a weak CPI today, arguably on seasonality, but the market doesn’t like it and EURSEK poking on the reversal zone of 10.60-65 back higher, but hard to argue for a proper reversal
NOK – stimulus hopes and persistent bounce in oil helping the EURNOK threaten lower here – warming to the prospects for a follow through lower with a close below 10.00 as the confirmation.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1100 – Turkey Policy Rate
- 1330 – US Fed’s Mester (Voter) to Speak
- 1330 – US Jan. Housing Starts / Building Permits
- 1330 – Canada Jan. CPI
- 1330 – US Jan. PPI
- 1645 – US Fed’s Kashkari (Voter) to Speak
- 1830 – US Fed’s Kaplan (Voter) to Speak
- 1900 – US FOMC Minutes
- 0030 – Australia Jan. Unemployment Rate / Employment Change
- 0130 – China Rate Announcement