The G-10 rundown
USD – the US dollar was weaker this morning in sympathy with strong global risk appetite – but pivoted after the German court ruling.
EUR – the euro under fresh pressure from the German court ruling – is this beginning of a major new wave of EU existential concerns or a short term distraction? Not sure, even with long term existential concerns for Europe ever-present. Already we have an EU meeting tomorrow, though one billed as a friendship conference with the Western Balkans.
JPY – interesting in the mix of things that as we lurched into “risk off” mode, the USD picked up against the JPY – but EURJPY an interesting one to watch as we note above on re-approaching the cycle lows.
GBP – pressure on the euro also being felt in EURGBP, though sterling losing out against traditional USD and JPY safe havens in the post-GCC ruling price action. The 0.8700 area in EURGBP and the lows below are an important pivot zone for the pair.
CHF – the SNB may be throwing heroic quantities of intervention in the market’s maw this morning as EURCHF looks inert despite the fresh pressure on the euro in the wake of the German court ruling.
AUD – the Aussie bouncing back but we keep a bearish watch on the AUDUSD chart as long as the pair remains below 0.6500. The RBA maintaining its usual sunny disposition overnight as the RBA baseline scenario is for a 6% hit to 2020 GDP, but for a v-shaped 6% recovery in GDP in 2021, and unemployment peaking out at 10%.
CAD – USDCAD meandering in the range as CAD got a minor boost from this surge in oil prices. Still looking higher for the pair as long as we remain above 1.4000, but we need to see a statement soon from the USD, which has been coiling and coiling in a shrinking range in broad terms.
NZD – the NZDUSD chart looks bearish if we remains below around 0.6100-25 after the reversal this week, though likely remains tightly coupled with global market sentiment direction.
SEK – a much better than expected Q1 GDP estimate boosts sentiment and puts EURSEK back toward the key sub-10.70 lows. As we ask with NOK below, is there some level of EU existential woe that finally supports the krona versus the single currency.
NOK – big bounce in oil has seen EURNOK nearing support – still looking for oil to remain in the driver’s seat, but wondering at what level of EU existential woes, if any, changes the equation here.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1230 – Canada Mar. Int’l Merchandise Trade
- 1230 – US Mar. Trade Balance
- 1400 – US Apr. ISM Non-manufacturing
- 1400 – US Fed’s Evans (non-Voter) to Speak
- 1800 – US Fed’s Bostic and Bullard (non-Voters) to Speak
- 2245 – New Zealand Q1 Unemployment Rate / Change / Wages
- 0130 – Australia Mar. Retail Sales