The G-10 rundown
USD – still a safe haven relative to the very riskiest portions of the market – but interesting to note the AUDUSD price action overnight – need to see another couple of sessions of price action to get a better feel for whether the USD is turning lower here.
EUR – the squeeze makes sense in light of recent speculative positioning levels and on the unwind of carry trades – and there may be more in the tank, but we are increasingly cautious from the angle of a slow EU response to the unfolding crisis and signs of existential strains returning (Italy over Germany 10-year yield spread has spiked back above 200 basis points.)
JPY – playing its classic role as a safe haven, especially versus woefully weak EM currencies as carry trades are thoroughly detonated now. Risk of vicious two-way price action now as volatility spikes and as the risk of MoF intervention rises (the MoF was already verbally checking overnight)
GBP – EURGBP looks interesting overnight, having reversed from the attempt at new highs – does the market feel that sterling looks a safe bet on the risk of a bungled EU response to the new crisis?
CHF – a weak echo of the CHF safe haven effect as EURCHF posts relatively minor new lows. Let’s not forget that Switzerland also has a large export economy that will suffer an ugly impact from this growth slowdown.
AUD – tough, given poor liquidity, to judge the quality of the bullish reversal overnight – is this the market arguing that China seems to be getting back to work while the contagion risks hitting Europe and the US hard now? Note sure I buy this if global market downturn extends.
CAD – CAD suffering an ugly mark-down on the gutting of oil prices – CADJPY briefly set an 8-year low overnight as USDCAD had a look close to the 2017 highs before reversing partially overnight. Canada rates must be marked more aggressively lower from here.
NZD – same as for AUD.
SEK – the krona hurting on the growth outlook on the coronavirus outbreak and weak oil prices – if the EURSEK move holds above 10.62-65, there is no resistance until the 10.90+ top.
NOK – the krone in a world of pain on the oil price plunge, which will require unheard of deficits on top of the economic shutdown from oil prices,
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1215 – Canada Feb. Housing Starts / Building Permits
- 0030 – Australia Feb. NAB Business Survey