The Deutsche Bank 3-month FX implied volatility index has dipped below 6%, an extremely low measure by historic standards, with the record just above 5.0%, achieved briefly during the summer of 2014. This fits with the backdrop of very strong risk sentiment, which faces a test over the coming sessions as we first have a look at important central bank meetings tomorrow (FOMC) and Thursday (Bank of Japan) followed by important US economic data on Friday (jobs report and ISM Manufacturing) and into early next week, as well as possible further breaking news on the US-China trade deal at any time, if recent noise on that front proves correct. Below are a few charts that could be set to pivot in coming days on incoming event risks as well as due to pivotal chart setups.
USDJPY – pivotal levels ahead of FOMC and BoJ
The USDJPY price action has been particularly moribund of late, but the pair is now staring down a critical chart level into 109.00 ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow and the Bank of Japan meeting just a few hours later, with this BoJ meeting set up as an important one by the BoJ’s promise of a policy review and the market pricing slightly below 50/50 odds of a 10 basis point rate cut. The 109.00 level is an important absolute level with implications stretching back many months and the 200-day moving average only adds interest. Arguably we also have an upside down head and shoulders formation, with the neckline somewhat difficult to define.