FX Breakout Monitor: USD looking higher on strong data

Today’s Breakout monitor

It’s been tough for USD traders to draw a bead on USD direction, as the few USD pairs that spilled over to the downside have backed up as the USD has suddenly firmed again this week – note especially USDSEK and NZDUSD in this category, reversals that deepened a bit in the wake of today’s stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing survey.

Elsewhere, China’s move to strengthen its currency sharply versus the USD looks like a friendly overture to encourage the US side to sign on for the phase one trade deal purported to be in the works and the strong risk appetite has been associated with weaker bond markets and higher yields, boosting USDJPY above its 19-day high close, as we discuss below.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: USDJPY
USDJPY has traded much like an inverse proxy of US long treasuries, rising as the yields have pulled back higher on the global melt-up in risk appetite. After selling off steeply in the wake of the FOMC meeting last week (initial knee-jerk was actually higher, but quickly rejected), USDJPY failed to follow through lower as bond yields reversed sharply. The pair could be set to rise further if this current backdrop of strong risk appetite and weak safe haven bonds persists – especially if the US 10-year benchmark breaks towards 2.00%. Note that USDJPY never took out the intraday high well above 109.00 while the current price is actually clear of the 19-day and 49-day high closes for the cycle.