Login Open account
United Kingdom
Back
Manage Consent
Details Cookies
United Kingdom
Important margin product information

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Necessary
Show more
Show more
Show more
Show more
International Australia 中国大陆 België Belgique Česká republika Danmark France Hong Kong S.A.R 中國香港 Italia UAE الشرق الأوسط Nederland Norge Polska По-русски Singapore Slovenská republika Switzerland Suisse Schweiz 日本
Accept all Necessary only Manage consent Save and close Accept all
United Kingdom
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Losses can exceed deposits on some products.
Show less
FX Breakout Monitor: USD breakdown spreading FX Breakout Monitor: USD breakdown spreading FX Breakout Monitor: USD breakdown spreading

FX Breakout Monitor: USD breakdown spreading

Forex 5 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  The USD has been pushed over the edge since the FOMC meeting in several major USD pairs, including EURUSD already on Friday. Elsewhere, sterling is stumbling badly again and SEK threatens to join and NOK are on the move.

Click here for a PDF version of today's Breakout Monitor

The market let rip with a powerful bout of USD selling in the wake of last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and EURUSD joined the list of major USD pairs breaking against the greenback’s favour. We add a EURUSD long to our breakout signal tracker list, as the move feels a bit different qualitatively from prior USD moves, and despite the fact that so many prior signals have led nowhere. The only stragglers in breaking higher versus the USD within the G10 are now the struggling sterling, and the Aussie and Kiwi, which have some catching up to do after having been beaten down by a cycle of dovish central bank moves. 

Breakout signal tracker

We add a EURUSD long signal today after Friday saw the pair close at a new 19-day and 49-day high, placing the stop rather wide in ATR terms as recent price activity suggests trading ranges may be expanding here.
Source: Saxo Bank
Today’s FX Breakout monitor

Page 1: EURUSD has made a clear break higher as of the Friday close. USDJPY perhaps having a hard time putting together a string of new lows as long US rates have backed up slightly here and as asset markets have largely taken to celebrating the Fed’s perceived dovishness. Note EURGBP poking at local cycle highs again today as sterling struggles. Elsewhere, we’re staggered by AUDNZD’s inability to break either way recently.
 
Source: Saxo Bank
Page 2: the easy Fed has EM all-abuzz, with a firmer response in the CNY after the FOMC likely helping the USDSGD and USDTHB to deepen their sell-offs, while only USDMXN and USDTRY are lagging a bit in showing USD weakness (remember the very heavy carry on TRY which is a strong tail wind for USDTRY shorts). Besides the ongoing run higher for gold, we would highlight EURSEK near pivotal levels near 10.60 as we discuss in the chart below.
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: EURUSD

EURUSD has poked above the 19-day and 49-day highs today with the prior attempts at breaking both of these levels having failed to generate any directional interest both to the upside and to the downside since late last November. Here’s to hoping that the move sticks this time – trend traders have suffered too long here!
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: EURSEK

The technical setup for a breakout to the downside here is rather interesting with the prior pivot and support line at stake just below 10.60. As well, EURNOK recently established precedent by breaking lower. We’ll watch this one over the next couple of days. The two short SEK trades from late April/early May were far and away the best performing of those signals we added to the signal tracker.
 
Source: Saxo Bank
REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations

The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.

Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.

ATR: Average True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).

High Closes / Low Closes: These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels.  

Breakouts: The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout. 

NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.

Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023: The models are broken

  • The models are broken

    The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.

    Steen Jakobsen,
    Chief Investment Officer

    Read article

  • Refitting China’s broken growth engine

    A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.

    Redmond Wong,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Broken Europe

    While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.

    Chris Dembik,
    Head of Macroeconomic Research

    Read article

  • A painful phase transition

    As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.

    Peter Garnry,
    Head of Equity Strategy

    Read article

  • Opportunities in a deglobalising world

    New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.

    Charu Chanana,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Is the ‘balanced’ 60/40 equity/bond portfolio a thing of the past?

    For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.

    Peter Siks,
    Investment Coach

    Read article

  • China reopening will drive another strong year for commodities

    Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.

    Ole S. Hansen,
    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read article

  • Latecomers to tightening party, EUR and JPY, may prove safest harbours in the first half

    2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.

    John J. Hardy,
    Head of FX Strategy

    Read article

  • China reopening a boon to Australian assets?

    The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.

    Jessica Amir,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Can institutions save crypto before retail vanishes?

    From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.

    Mads Eberhardt,
    Cryptocurrency Analyst

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, or any of our other products work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The value of your investments can go down as well as up. Losses can exceed deposits on some margin products. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading carries risk.

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.