FX Breakout Monitor: Rash of USD breakouts spreads FX Breakout Monitor: Rash of USD breakouts spreads FX Breakout Monitor: Rash of USD breakouts spreads

FX Breakout Monitor: Rash of USD breakouts spreads

Forex 5 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  An extremely low volatility market, but the USD is pushing higher and breaking out in an increasing number of pairs, including an attempt higher versus the euro and Aussie today. Sterling is trying to perk up as well, while SEK has stumbled again after an aggressive extension higher intraday.


The link below takes you to the latest FX Breakout Monitor, a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.

Today’s Breakout monitor

Below is a snap of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. Note the sea of deep blue in the ATR readings for the majority of the pairs in the universe we cover, something that requires that the trading ranges are in the lowest 15% of the last one thousand observations.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Despite the low volatility, the US dollar continues to make waves, edging to new highs for a third day versus the Singapore dollar (SGD), looking at a new high close versus CAD and AUD today and even threatening to break higher versus gold and silver and euro.

Elsewhere, action is mostly muted and we note that one of the more interesting technical breaks of late – the EURSEK push down through the recent range lows, is backfilling badly today – typical of the action in the Scandies of late.

Sterling is looking higher again versus the CHF and the rather weak euro, possibly setting up an extension after the prior surge failed to yield much for sterling bulls. Still, a lot of event risk uncertainty ahead of the December 12 UK elections.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: AUDUSD
As we are writing this post, the AUDUSD is pushing on the local pivot that is the last real support line ahead of the sub-0.6700 lows (note that the pair has not close below that round figure in over a decade), though the nominal low daily close for the cycle is 0.6786. The broadly firmer USD gives some confidence, but the very compressed trading ranges and a number of false breaks virtually all over FX of late are cause for concern for momentum traders. The key data from the US is up next week ahead of the subsequent week’s FOMC meeting. In Australia, the RBA’s Lowe will be out speaking later today.

Source: Saxo Group

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992