FX Breakout Monitor: EUR firm across the board FX Breakout Monitor: EUR firm across the board FX Breakout Monitor: EUR firm across the board

FX Breakout Monitor: EUR firm across the board

Forex 5 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The euro has firmed across the board after last week’s ECB meeting and looks set for a few days of relative strength.

Click here for the full FX Breakout Monitor report.

The US dollar continues to limp around without much conviction. It's still weak against the euro after Friday’s weak jobs report, but it has rebounded slightly elsewhere. Clearly there is an enormous amount at stake for the market over the June 19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting after the market’s aggressive repricing of Fed policy expectations in recent weeks.

The euro, meanwhile, continues to flourish in relative terms, maintaining altitude against the US dollar, and rallying fairly hard against the JPY and CHF.

As we wait for key US developments over the coming week (and really through the G20 summit near the end of this month, due to the possibility of a Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines) we focus a bit more on the crosses, where we see a weak AUD and NZD and the euro poking at new highs in places.

Breakout signal tracker

We add a EURAUD long to the signal tracker after the pair closed at a new high for the cycle yesterday and could be set for further gains on the breakout.
Source: Saxo Bank
Today’s FX Breakout monitor

Page 1: EURUSD has managed to hold above 1.1300, but the USD picture is a bit mixed elsewhere. Note the euro threatening new local highs versus GBP and JPY and posting a new high close for both 19-days and 49-days in EURAUD (more in chart below). Elsewhere, CAD is on quite the rampage after strong employment data on Friday with AUDCAD pushing near 2019 lows.
Source: Saxo Bank
Page 2: USDSEK and USDNOK are trying to poke to new local lows here, but the technical situation has been very rangebound for months in these pairs – effectively an upside-down EURUSD.

Elsewhere, gold and silver have pulled away from the aggressive move last week though the next break higher, if it arrives, gets even more compelling technically if it holds the $1,350/oz area in gold and 15.00+ on silver on a daily close. 
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: EURAUD (weekly)

EURAUD is looking an area of long term interest around 1.6250+ that stretches back months and really years – almost 10 years – as we add the breakout signal to the upside to our signal tracker. Note that we have zoomed out to a weekly chart here to show the scale of the breakout potentially unfolding here. EURNZD (not tracked in our monitor) also merits a look.
Source: Saxo Bank
REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations

The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.

Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.

ATRAverage True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).

High Closes / Low Closes: These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels.  

 The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout. 

NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992