Has the dollar index achieved lift-off?
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: The USD rally may appear to have paused over the past few sessions, but the dollar remains the FX major to beat.
The rising USDX doesn’t bode well for the single currency. The intraday and short term EURUSD technicals are bearish with a break of 1.1140 pointing to 1.1110. Fibonacci retracement suggests that the move below the 61.8% Q1'18-Q1'19 range opens the door to 1.0850, the 76.4% Fibonacci level. Dovish European Central Bank monetary policy, the spate of weak Eurozone economic data and EU/US interest rate differentials continue to support bearish EURUSD sentiment.
US personal Income rose 0.1%, and personal expenditures rose 0.9% in March. The income rise was disappointing, but the partial government shutdown may have impacted the results. The Bureau of Economic Analysis stated that “due to the recent partial Dederal government shutdown, this report combines estimates for February and March 2019. Personal Income is updated for January and February, and new estimates are available for March.”
FX traders ignored the data, and the US dollar managed to scrape out minor gains against the G10 major currencies since the New York open.
Wall Street opened flat, but the outlook is positive thanks to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s comments about the China/US trade talks and the prospect of more dovish comments from the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Traders, meanwhile, appear content to wait for Alphabet’s (GOOG: Nasdaq) results after the close.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
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Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
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