COT: Dollar selling pauses, curve-flatteners in demand
Head of Commodity Strategy
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending June 5, click here.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending June 5, click here.
After six weeks of selling, the speculative dollar short against nine IMM currency futures was unchanged in the week to June 5.
The most noticeable change was in the Mexican peso where speculators finally flipped to a net-short following seven weeks of selling.
Additional selling of EUR, GBP, and CAD were offset by buying of CHF, JPY, AUD, and NZD.
In fixed income the strong US jobs report on June 1 and the near-certain US rate hike on June 13 saw leveraged funds enter into curve-flattening mode. They sold all maturities from Fed Funds to five-years while buying all from 10-years to ultras.
The net-short of 148,000 lots in two-years was the biggest in more than five years.
Funds overall turned less bearish on US Treasuries with the net-short value of a one basis point move (DV01) dropping to $180 million, a seven-week low.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)