Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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US Index Watch – 25 June
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
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US Index Levels to Watch – 18 June
Key trading levels and signals to watch in US indices
Summary:A week is a long time in markets - US stocks surged on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 (+1.11%) nearing a record high, the Nasdaq 100 (+1.53%) closing at all-time highs, and the Dow (+1.19%) gaining over 500 points. Investor optimism followed a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Volatility continues to drift lower, with the Vix down 2.35 points to 17.48, its lowest in two weeks.
US equity indices are now at bit of a moment - was all that fretting about tariffs and the end of US exceptionalism a load of nonsense? The deadline for reciprocal tariffs looms on July 9th and a week later earnings season kicks off; it could get interesting again.
S&P 500
Last week saw a big rejection for bulls at 6,069 but the relief rally in the wake of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has pushed the broad market back higher and after pushing the upper Bollinger Band around 6,080 we saw a break higher to above 6,100 and bulls will look at using the momentum after holding the 21-day SMA to take out the all-time high at 6,147. Failure to hold this level however looks likely to see 6,069 come back into play swiftly and then back to the 6,000 battleground.
The market has been relatively sanguine about geopolitical risk as the peak of the impact from fears around tariffs, US immigration policy and geopolitics seems to be behind us. The market also seems to be buying into the idea that the Fed is about to cut in July. Meanwhile earnings expectations are being revised up. Nike reports Thursday.
US Tech 100 NAS
Last week we noted that despite a bearish crossover on the MACD and RSI divergencea potential golden cross was forming. This week saw this bullish golden cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) moving above the 200-day line, completed and the market then kicked on to a record high. Last time we saw this move it kicked off the monster 2023-25 rally. NDX rallied 34% in the year after the last occurrence on March 13th, and analysis going back to 1980 suggests the indicator is a bullish signal. The June 11th high at 22,066 now looks like the main bit of support if we reverse here, while 21,444 needs to crack for a more substantial pullback. Note Micron earnings tonight could be important.
US 30 Wall Street
Having traded below its 200DMA for a few days the lower Bollinger was tested and held and yesterday saw a clear upside breach of the 200-day line that takes price action back to early March levels but needs to hold for this indecisiveness on the MACD to end. Like the other two indices price action is butting up against the upper Bollinger.
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