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US Index Levels to Watch – 18 June
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
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US Index Levels to Watch – 18 June
Key trading levels and signals to watch in US indices
Summary: Last week we noted that the Vix lowest since February reflects complacency...”time to chop sideways and see a little downside from here” and “technicals look shaky on the major indices”. Since then, we had a major macro story with the Israeli strike on Iran and subsequent escalation, which has pressured equity indices with a steep fall on Friday only partially recovered. A FOMC meeting tonight means added risk and while no change is expected, my colleague John Hardy suggests the market could get a dovish surprise.
S&P 500
Last week saw a big rejection for bulls at 6,069 as trade news and inflation data was sold. Next up was the big round number support at the May 29th high on 6,000 - this cracked but Monday’s rally has seen a recovery to this level and it’s now the big battleground. RSI has been diverging and suggesting a breakdown and this looks to be confirmed by MACD bearish crossover - albeit not the most decisive version of a crossover I’ve ever seen, though the histogram is showing up red. The picture is very much a sideways drift with the market awaiting a strong catalyst to break either way.
The May 20th high at 5,973 is an important support as it formed Tuesday's low as the market retreated. Below this is 5,920, the June 6th/13th lows.
Bottom of the Bollinger band sits very close to the 200-day SMA around the next big round number support at 5,800, the March swing high – this could be tested again on lack of good news and deteriorating US eco data. June 11th high at 6,069 has a clear runway if the 6,000 holds securely, then the top of the BB is 6,084, which is the bulls’ ultimate target.
US Tech 100 NAS
We see a similar setup on the Nasdaq 100 as the market drifts sideways – bearish crossover on the MACD, RSI divergence but potential golden cross forming. 21,980 is the bull target to push up to the June 11th high at 22,066, while 21,444 needs to crack for bears.
US 30 Wall Street
Following the breach of the 200-day simple moving average, the Dow bounced off 41,951 and now 200-day line acts as key resistance for bulls around 42,500 area. Seems to drifting lower after the breach of the post Liberation Day trend line but bears need breach of Monday low to suggest any real selling pressure.
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