Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: The current VIX level indicates significantly negative returns ahead for S&P 500 and four times the normal volatility on a daily basis. In addition the VIX futures term structure suggests that traders are rewarded for being long and that VIX is expected to be very high even in May. Speculative positions in VIX options and futures suggest that short volatility positions have been cut aggressively but that 15% of open interest is still short.
Equity option markets provide investors with valuable information about expectations for volatility and the time value embedded. The VIX Index closed at 82.69 which was a new record close surpassing closing VIX prices during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. However, the absolute intraday peak of 89.53 in 2008 has not been surpassed yet. Historical analysis of the VIX Index suggest that VIX at these levels puts the market into a state with significant negative return expectations and realized volatility more than four times the normal level combined with extreme large kurtosis. In other words, equities are biased towards more declines from current levels.
However, hidden in the VIX futures term structure clues for when the equity market bottoms are visible. The term structure of VIX (how the price of future contracts relates to the spot) is normally in contango (upward sloping) meaning that VIX futures have a higher price than the spot. This means that the futures market is pricing on average than volatility will rise from current levels. Historically this premium to spot has been too high relative to the subsequent realized volatility and thus traders have made money by shorting the different VIX futures contracts which then rolls down creating a positive roll yield for being short volatility.
The current spread in percentage between the second futures contract (expires in May) and spot is -84.5% which is lower than during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. This means that the expecting VIX to fall over the coming months but only to levels around 44 which would still be very high levels. The steep backwardation (downward sloping) creates a tailwind for being long volatility. The Lyxor ETF S&P 500 VIX Futures Enhanced Roll (vool:xetr) is one way to express this. When the VIX futures term structure (2nd VIX contract / VIX Index) has been higher than -10% we typically see positive equity markets. For clients that want to track this spread the VIX Index and the current 2nd month VIX futures contract have the Saxo ticker codes VIX.I and VXK0 respectively.
Another way to gauge when the market has exhausted itself is be looking at the speculative positions in VIX options and futures. We have come from the largest short volatility position ever with 40% of open interest being short, that’s yield chasers dominating volatility hedgers. The data is one week delayed but still shows that the short volatility positions have been cut massively but not to zero yet. If speculative positions move into positive then it would be another sign of equity market bottoming.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)