Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: All US Stock Indices have turned short-term bearish.
S&P 500 closed below 4K and seems set for lower levels. 3,949 level could be a battleground for Bulls and Bears.
Dow Jones broke bearish out of sideways range. Index below the Ichimoku cloud
Nasdaq 100 likely to test key strong support at 11,906.
Russell 2000 back below 1,900 and seems set for further selling pressure.
US500 and USNAS100 cfd levels to look out for
Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
S&P 500 took out support at 4,015 yesterday to close below 4K. The Index is now technically in a downtrend. However, RSI is still above 40 i.e., showing positive sentiment. If RSI closes below 40 it will be one of those rare instances where RSI turns negative without having shown divergence prior to that. But S&P 500 looks heavy.
However, the 55 Moving Average currently around 3,980 and the 0.50 retracement of the January-February uptrend will offer some support.
Add to that the 200 and 100 Moving Averages between 3,950 and 3,900, and the 0.618 retracement at 3,929. All in all the area around 3,949 could be a battleground for Bulls and Bears.
A daily close below 3,949 is likely to push RSI below 40 i.e., in bearish sentiment and further fueling the selling pressure.
For S&P 500 to resume uptrend a close above 4,160 is needed
The Ichimoku cloud will also provide support around the 0.618 retracement level.
A dip down below 3,949 to touch 3,929 and the cloud followed by a nice bounce could be a likely scenario in the coming week.
Nasdaq 100 broke below minor support at 12,166 and is technically in a short-term downtrend. The Index seems to be on course to test key support at 11,906. If closing below 11,906 RSI will reverse the positive sentiment it is currently indicating.
An Index closing below 11,906 is likely to further adding to the selling pressure down to around the 0.618 retracement at around 11,515.
Nasdaq 100 is still well above the cloud (Not shown)
USNAS100 cfd has a confirmed Double Top pattern unfolding with potential target down to 11,657. 200 daily Moving Average around 11,900 will provide some support.
Dow Jones broke bearish out of its very short-term range after being rejected several times a the 34,342 level.
The Index has been showing RSI divergence for weeks and the Indicator is now below 40 i.e., negative sentiment. Dow Jones Is likely to test key strong support at around 32,573.
100 and 200 Moving Averages will add to this support level. A close below 32,573 Dow Jones is likely to drop further to the medium-term falling trendline and support at 31,738
To reverse this bearish trend a close above 34,342 is needed.
Adding to the bearish picture, Dow Jones is now below the Ichimoku cloud.
Russell 2000 closed below key support at around 1,906 and has reversed to a bearish trend. RSI is still positive, however.
We could see Russell 2000 trying to be lifted back above 1,900 but the down trend is intact until a close above 1,963.
A drop to the 0.618 retracement at 1,931 and strong support at around 1,825 is in the cards.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)