Technical Update - SP500 and Nasdaq 100 confirming down trends. Semiconductors leading the trends lower Technical Update - SP500 and Nasdaq 100 confirming down trends. Semiconductors leading the trends lower Technical Update - SP500 and Nasdaq 100 confirming down trends. Semiconductors leading the trends lower

Technical Update - SP500 and Nasdaq 100 confirming down trends. Semiconductors leading the trends lower

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  S&P 500/ US500 and Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 closed yesterday below support levels confirming bearish trends with 5% downside potential
Semiconductor SOXX ETF is being sold off heavily but could be facing 5-10% further downside


S&P 500 closed yesterday below the 200 Moving Average and below support at around 4,195. RSI was rejected at the 40 threshold  confirming downtrend.
S&P 500 has no strong support until at around 4,050. Minor support at around 4,098.

Medium-term: If S&P 500 is closing the week lower so the weekly RSI is closing below 40 threshold there is likely further downside potential for the Index in coming weeks

A sell-off down to the 200 weekly Moving Average just below 4K could be seen

For S&P 500 to reverse the trend a close above 4,395 is needed

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

S&P 500 future/US500 cfd Pre-market pointing to a lower open. Currently trading below support at around 4,165. Next strong support at around 4,050

Nasdaq 100 closed below minor support at around 14,505 and is likely to test the next support at around 14,254 from the opening bell.

The Nasdaq 100 future/USNAS100 cfd is at the time of writing trading around that level.

However, the support at 14,254 is not the strongest support. With the negative RSI  Nasdaq could is indicating lower levels.

A bearish move below the 200 Moving Average to around 13,600-13,500 is in the cards.
If Nasdaq 100 is closing below 14,500 at the end of the week medium-term bearish trend is confirmed.

However, the weekly 55 and 200 Moving Average are rising and could provide support around the 13,600-13,500 area

The Semiconductor sector illustrated by the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX closed yesterday below key support at around 444. Further selling should be expected. Minor support at around 430 strong support at around 401

A close back above the 200 MA will put the sector back in neutral. But to reverse the trend a close above 497 is needed

Disclaimer: Author is short USNAS100 and SOXX etf

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992