Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Nasdaq continuing higher confirming uptrend and is eyeing 13K and beyond.
S&P 500 above 4K testing short-term falling trendline. Could confirm uptrend in coming days
Big Cap Dow Jones and Small Cap Russell 2000 bounced off strong support but upside seems limited short-term
Including US500 and USNAS100 levels
S&P 500 has retraced 50% of the February bearish market to touch the short-term falling trendline yesterday. The Index closed above 4K and above the 55 daily MA, and is back in the cloud. RSI is still showing negative sentiment but could reverse that picture if S&P 500 moves higher next couple of days.
An Index close above the falling trend and above the cloud could give bulls more energy to lift the Index higher.
Resistance at around 4,048. A close above 4,079 will confirm uptrend that is likely to take S&P 500 to February peak around 4,200. A close below 3,900 will reverse this likely bullish scenario.
US500 cfd closed yesterday above the falling trendline. Testing it from the upper side today. If dropping back below 3,900 downtrend is likely to resume
Nasdaq 100 pushing higher and has taken out 0.786 retracement at 12,627. 13K is in sight. If Nasdaq 100 closes above February peak at 12,881 there is no strong resistance at around 13,687 close to the 1.618 projection of the February correction. First target after a close above 12,881 is likely to be the 1.382 projection at around 13,333.
RSI is positive with no divergence supporting the bullish view. To reverse this bullish picture a close below 12,407 is needed fort a test of the short-term falling trendline.
Dow Jones Index bounced from the support at around 31,738 to the 0.382 retracement and resistance at around 32,573. A close above is likely to pave the way to 0.618 retracement at around 33,233 where the 55 and 100 daily MA’s will adding resistance. RSI is still negative but has broken above its falling trendline. There is no divergence however, so of RSI breaks back below 40 threshold it is an indication of lower levels in the Index is coming.
If Dow Jones closes below 31,738 the down trend is likely to be extended below 31K with strong support at around 30,192
Russell 2000 Smal Cap Index has bounced from strong support at around 1,722. RSI divergence indicates there could be further upside possibly to test the strong resistance around 1,825.
A close below 1,722 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to 1,653
RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)