Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - Microsoft uptrend in danger. Alphabet eyeing all-time high levels
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Microsoft opening lower could jeopardize the uptrend. Key supports should be observed.
Alphabet (C ) set to gap higher resuming uptrend with new all-time high potential
Microsoft is indicated to open around 338 (indicated on the chart by a red horizontal dashed line) today after earnings release After market close yesterday.
If it does it will be testing the lower rising trend. A close below could jeopardize the bullish trend. A close below 328 will confirm a short-term bearish trend that is likely to accelerate if closing below 323. If that scenario unfolds key support at around 312 is likely to be tested.
RSI divergence (where prices are making new higher closing but RSI values are not) is indicating weakening of the uptrend suggesting a trend reversal/correction is likely to occur thus supporting Microsoft to trade lower over the next couple of weeks.
Weekly chart formed a Spinning top candle last week. Combined with RSI divergence it is a fairly reliable top and reversal indicator but a down trend is not yet confirmed. Share price needs to close below 327 to confirm that the bullish trend has reversed.
However, if buyers can manage to lift Microsoft to close above Tuesday high at 351.90 the Spinning top reversal is likely to be cancelled and prices moving to new all-time highs Alphabet C (GOOG) is indicated to jump at the opening as indicated on the daily chart (red horizontal dashed line). The June peak seems to be tested.
Unless GOOG is closing the opening gap i.e., closing below 122.79 stock has resumed uptrend with potential to strong resistance at around 143.85, but could move to test all-time highs around 152.
For GOOG to reverse the bullish trend a close below 115.80 is needed.
If that plays out share price will have closed below daily Cloud adding to the bearish picture.
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