Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: LVMH is drawing a bearish picture. After earning share price is testing rising trendline that if broken can send LVMH share price down to 700
Rolls Royce broken bullish out of narrow sideways range. Short- to medium- term potential to 220-240 area. Medium- to longer-term +300
LVMH is down this morning after earnings release. The stock seems to be forming a triangle like pattern on daily chart currently testing the lower rising trendline
A close below followed by a close below minor support at around 814.40 could send the share price down to strong support at round 774.70. Support at around 805.80
Share price is also below the 55 and 100 daily Moving Averages AND below the Cloud . If RSI is also closing below 40 threshold, which it is likely to do if share close below 814.40, the short-term downtrend has been confirmed.
Medium-term rising trendline has been broken a few weeks ago. And a close below 800 on the weekly chart will confirm medium-term downtrend that could be accelerated if LVMH is breaking below 774.70. A move down into the consolidation area 733 -674 could be seen. Upper level of the area at around 733 is the strongest support level.
For LVMH to reverse the rather short-term bearish picture a close above 870 is needed. Medium-term a close above 893 is needed
Rolls Royce jumped +20% on back of earnings release this morning. The jump has taken the stock out of the range bound behaviour since March
On the medium-term (weekly chart) Rolls Royce has resumed uptrend (after several weeks of range trading) with no resistance until around 221-242 area.
A close above the resistance area i.e. a close above 242 paves the road towards 300-335
There is divergence on RSI both daily and weekly but with todays price action, and given share price will end higher, their (RSI) falling trendlines are broken indicating the divergencies are likely to be cancelled.
To reverse this bullish picture a close below 143.75 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a close of the gap created at the opening today i.e., a close below 156.70
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)