Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - Hang Seng Index, China A50 and Nikkei 225
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Hang Seng Index couldn’t stay above the 17K level for long before sellers took back control. The bearish trend remains and Hang Seng is likely to move lower in coming weeks.
RSI still in negative sentiment with no divergence indicating lower Index levels.
There is no strong support until around Q4 2022 lows around 14,863.
Currently testing lower short-term rising trendline if HSI is closing below 16,271 a move below 16K is in the cards. First warning of this scenario to play out is like RSI closing back below 40 threshold.
A close above 17,135 will demolish this bearish scenario.
China A 50 (future) was rejected at resistance at around 11,585 and has resumed downtrend. RSI was also rejected at 60 threshold confirming the bearish picture.
The A50 Index future is still trading in a falling channel and could medium-term decline further towards 10K
Nikkei 225 future is forming an ascending triangle pattern with a slightly falling upper trendline (ideally it should be horizontal). As indicated by positive sentiment on the RSI with no divergence break out is likely to be to the upside.
If Nikkei 225 is closing above 33,870 and RSI is closing back above 60 threshold a bullish trend to the 1.382 projection of the triangle at 34,550 is likely. But there could very well be further upside potential after a likely bullish break out.
Japan 225 cfd
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