Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: European markets rebounded Friday. DAX and CAC 40 could test previous all-time highs.
AEX 25 back above key level. BEL 20 bounced from 7,300 support.
Index cfd charts and levels in the article
DAX bounced from support at 15,706. If closing above 16,012 the Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle has been cancelled and DAX which will pave the road to test all-time high at around 16,290.
IF Dax closes below 15,706 the Index next support is at 15,482 where the 55 daily Moving Average will provide support. A close below 15,482 could lead to a sell-off down to around 15K. Here 100 daily Moving Average and the Cloud will offer support.
RSI is showing divergence indicating to uptrend is weakening but if RSI closes above its falling trendline and back above 60 threshold it is an indication DAX will push higher. If RSI closes above the horizontal dashed line the divergence has been cancelled indicating higher DAX levels are likely.
If RSI is rejected at its falling trendline the support at around d15,706 could come under pressure.
GER40 cfd levels: Support at 15,688. Potential to 16,298 all-time high. A clso9e below 15,688 next support at 15,500
AEX 25 bounced back above the 747 which was the previous support level. And back above the Ichimoku Cloud
RSI bounced from 40 threshold i.e., still in positive sentiment. If AEX closes above 760 the Index could test previous peak at around 777.
If dropping back lower taking out low from last week support at 731 is to be tested and could initiate a sell off down tow 712.
BEL 20 bounced from 200 daily Moving Average and managed to close above key support at 3,734. BEL 20 can close above 3,816 a move top 3,900 is in the cards.
RSI bounce from 40 threshold supports the slightly bullish scenario.
IF BEL slides back and takes out last week’s low at 3,712 selling pressure down to around 3,600- 3,550 could be seen.
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