Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
S&P ASX 200 has found support at the top of the cloud and above the 55 daily Moving Average. Positive RSI sentiment indicates ASX 200 is likely to move higher. A close above 7,293 will confirm that. Resistance at around 7,370, however. If broken a move towards 7,600 is in the cards.
IF ASX 200 closes below 7,141 it is likely to initiate a downwards move to 7,000-6,900
Hang Seng is testing key support at around 19,523. A likely close below could fuel a sell-off down 18,814. A close below that support there is downside potential 17,287-17K.
Strong resistance at around 20,782. If HSI breaks above 20,322 that resistance is likely to be tested.
FTSE A50 seems destined for another go at the support at around 12,820. If closing below a sell-off could hit A50 down to 12,000-11,830
To reverse this likely bearish scenario a close above 13,522 is needed
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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