Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
ASX200 seems to have found support along the rising trendline going back to October. If the Index can close back above 21 and 55 daily Moving Averages it is back in uptrend mode. An uptrend that is likely to lift ASX200 back to around 7,600.
A close below 7,193 will extend the ´short-term downtrend to around 7K.
Hang Seng Index dipped below 20K but has stayed above the 0.3282 retracement at 19,605 and the 200 daily Moving Average. However, RSI is negative indicating lower levels and the Index is still below 21 and 55 daily Moving Averages. If Hang Seng moves back above 21 and 55 MA the Index it will be indication of the Index reversing trend. For Hang Seng a confirmation of a trend reversal a close above 21,307 is needed.
FTSE China A50 Index future has bounced from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at around 13,191 and the RSI bounced from the 40 threshold i.e., still in positive sentiment.
If A50 closes above 13,838 will confirm it has resumed uptrend.
If A50 instead takes out the trough from the 27th February at 13,135 the down trend has been confirmed with support at around 12,787 as a likely first move.
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